BTC 4 Year Cycle Cadence Strategy
Just an idea on the seemingly regular cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle. I am basing my strategy on this. Short BTC into November with regular rebalancing. When BTC hits the 200 week/50 month MA, and the RSI hits 30 on the weekly chart/44.5 on the monthly, switch long on BTC and long altcoins there as well, and just rebalance at support and resistance levels into Oct. 2025.
I've seen arguments that the BTC cycle is lengthening and there is another major run coming with blow off top, but I don't buy it.
1)The RSI has not bottomed out yet. Last two cycles, it bottomed 12 months after the cycle high.
2)There really isn't going to be a sudden super massive flood of new buyers entering the crypto market again so soon after the last one, and that's necessary to create a major run.
3) The BTC halving cycle, which the price cycle is based on, has not lengthened.
4) The price cycle, shown as a consistent cadence, rather than lengthening, matches up with highs and lows of the past few cycles with pretty high precision.
5) BTC has not revisited the 200 week/50 month ma. Last two cycles, did so 12 months after cycle high.
I've seen arguments that the BTC cycle is lengthening and there is another major run coming with blow off top, but I don't buy it.
1)The RSI has not bottomed out yet. Last two cycles, it bottomed 12 months after the cycle high.
2)There really isn't going to be a sudden super massive flood of new buyers entering the crypto market again so soon after the last one, and that's necessary to create a major run.
3) The BTC halving cycle, which the price cycle is based on, has not lengthened.
4) The price cycle, shown as a consistent cadence, rather than lengthening, matches up with highs and lows of the past few cycles with pretty high precision.
5) BTC has not revisited the 200 week/50 month ma. Last two cycles, did so 12 months after cycle high.
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