Wave 5: Final Push, Extreme Caution Zone 🚨
Wave 5 represents the final stage in an Elliott Wave cycle and often marks the peak of an established trend. While it can offer profitable opportunities, it’s also a phase where extreme caution is advised. Here’s why:
1. High Risk of Reversal
Wave 5 usually signifies the final push of a trend before a major correction or reversal.
As Wave 5 progresses, the market may become overextended, attracting late buyers driven by “FOMO” (fear of missing out).
This phase often experiences declining momentum, suggesting that the trend could soon weaken and reverse sharply.
2. Exhaustion of Market Sentiment
Wave 5 often aligns with an overbought market condition. Indicators like RSI or MACD may signal divergence, where price continues up but momentum weakens, hinting at an approaching reversal.
Traders who enter during Wave 5 are often driven by emotion rather than fundamentals or technical strength, leading to higher volatility.
3. Limited Upside Potential
Compared to earlier waves, particularly Wave 3, the upside potential in Wave 5 is generally more limited.
Attempting to enter at this stage poses a high risk since the reward is often smaller, while the potential downside can be significant once the trend reverses.
4. False Breakouts and Bull Traps
In Wave 5, breakouts above key resistance levels may not hold, leading to “bull traps” where traders are caught buying at the top.
These false breakouts often result in sharp reversals, catching unprepared traders off guard and leading to potential losses.
5. Post-Wave 5 Correction (A-B-C Pattern)
Following Wave 5, the market typically enters a corrective A-B-C phase, where price retraces and seeks a new balance.
This corrective phase can be deep and prolonged, wiping out gains made during Wave 5 and often more, particularly for those who entered late.