Fundamental Analysis continued (BTCUSD)
I published the original idea a few weeks ago. But it seems to be coming into light.
1. Groups like Microstrategy are mostly bought out, or out of the market due to the hawkish fed remarks.
It will be hard to realize a move up to 41k like last week, when Microstrategy was buying. Institutional buyers are not buying like they were at the start of the bubble.
2. If long term support at 30k is broken, long term holders (whales) will turn bearish as the likelihood of new highs will be very low.
3. There may be a spring at the 27 - 28k range. These are quick deal people. Price can go up (35 range) again.
But this would be short term.
ALL OF the fundamentals that caused the BTC ATH are turned around at this point. What fundamentals?
a. Bullish institutional investors (GONE or already bought in)
b. Free stimulus money (GONE)
c. People being bored at home (In most places GONE)
d. Elon Musk and Tesla pump (have gone bearish)
e. BTC as an inflation hedge (Does not exist if Fed is hawkish)
f. possible upsides of a trade (short term and lower gains on the big coins)
We could experience a runaway price crash within the next few months. This would cause a new crypto winter (duration unknown)
This all depends on holding 30k. If it does hold, we may see another 40k run and be right back here in a few weeks.
If any bad news comes out before a price recovery, chances of breaking under 30k are high.
1. Groups like Microstrategy are mostly bought out, or out of the market due to the hawkish fed remarks.
It will be hard to realize a move up to 41k like last week, when Microstrategy was buying. Institutional buyers are not buying like they were at the start of the bubble.
2. If long term support at 30k is broken, long term holders (whales) will turn bearish as the likelihood of new highs will be very low.
3. There may be a spring at the 27 - 28k range. These are quick deal people. Price can go up (35 range) again.
But this would be short term.
ALL OF the fundamentals that caused the BTC ATH are turned around at this point. What fundamentals?
a. Bullish institutional investors (GONE or already bought in)
b. Free stimulus money (GONE)
c. People being bored at home (In most places GONE)
d. Elon Musk and Tesla pump (have gone bearish)
e. BTC as an inflation hedge (Does not exist if Fed is hawkish)
f. possible upsides of a trade (short term and lower gains on the big coins)
We could experience a runaway price crash within the next few months. This would cause a new crypto winter (duration unknown)
This all depends on holding 30k. If it does hold, we may see another 40k run and be right back here in a few weeks.
If any bad news comes out before a price recovery, chances of breaking under 30k are high.
כתב ויתור
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