Bulls have a chance to score a point here. They' d better do it.

Possible speculative Long opportunity looming, medium to high risk contrarian trade.

Here's the scenario:

• Sparse falling wedge. Pullback ongoing, after some breakout attempt on low volume. Pattern still unconfimed, be vigilant.
  
  
• Slowing momentum, close to neutral, as witnessed by RSI, MACD and Bollinger bands.
  
  
• 30.000-31.000$ area boosting triple support: lower BB, Weekly MA50, support trendline.
  
  
• Persisting bullish divergence
  
  
• Wedge ongoing on RSI, close to congestion and hinting upcoming volatility within days ( within first 10-14 days of july ).
  
  
• Hashrate seemingly bottoming. We'll have an umprecedented difficulty correction (-26%) within hours. This should ideally help ending current miners capitulation and hopefully close a pocket on hash ribbons and hopefully paint a Blue Dot within July.
  
  
  
  
  
• Short term: 6H hinting a possible bounce within 12/24 hours:
  
  
  
  
  

--

All in all i can see some speculative bullish opportunity here, at breakout (either on price chart or RSI) or as close to support as possible (hence reducing the % of loss).
A contrarian Long here does not go without risks.

Opportunity would be invalidated by loss of the critical support area on weekly close.

Hence do your own diligence and manage YOUR risk.
Have a SL.

הערה:

Needs to confirm breakout and achieve parabolic SAR reversal as a first step.

הערה:

We just had the biggest negative difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin history, -28%.
Eyes on hashrate now, let's bottom out and close this big pocket:

הערה:

(ONLY For those asking me for intraday scenario)
Top of channel and resistance:

הערה:

Short term TF quite stretched already.
It should try to flip 6H Parabolic SAR.

We' ll see.

הערה:

It's stretched, see the rising wedge.

Volume or pullback.
In case of a retracement bulls should *try* to keep price above the 34.000$ area.
It would be good for some hypothetical second leg up.

Anyway, soon to say.
Protect your position.

הערה:

(and ONLY for intraday folks)
Resistance surfin' ... Watch it.

הערה:

Minor breakout attempt ongoing, not much volume for now:

Is this the big move we were waiting for ? Not yet.

Still within the wedge on RSI:

That's the breakout we need to watch now.
Either way.

הערה:

Test ongoing.

הערה:

Overall picture is unchanged.

Still sideways and awaiting a signal from RSI.

We have an ascending triangle candidate, worth watching it as well.

Overall support area rising.
MA50/W support moved up over 31.400$.
Lower BB rose as Bollinger Bands are shrinking.
That's hinting price congestion before a strong move.

הערה:

Bulls should find a breakout of resistance soon, or regret it.

4th touch of resistance.

הערה:

Meanwhile on TF 1D BB are shrinking and start intersecting Keltner channel. It means price is close to congestion, so look out for a squeeze at any time.

הערה:

By the way, it's a couple weeks i watch this:

Personally i hate diamonds as they're almost unpredictable with cumbersome breakout. So let's PRAY it's a (very sparse) diamond bottom and not a half staff ...

הערה:

Another rjection on RSI resistance ....

הערה:

Looks like a diamond formation indeed:

הערה:

Meanwhile, on a shorter TF ...

Testing minor resistance after testing support twice (6 tests already there).
Hopefully will break through.

Let's see.

הערה:

Finally, RSI/D nearing edge of pattern ...

הערה:

הערה:

MACD hinting a crossover, while MA50/W will get an uptick on weekly close.

Watch it.

הערה:

CMF nearing April pre-slump high.

הערה:

Go, bulls.

הערה:

I'm sharing this private analysis i drafted and shared with few friends 2 days ago, on the 33.000$ dip.

Tonight we got the RSI/D breakout i was waiting, which is hinting the hyphotesist above has some chance to happen. Will comment more.

הערה:

Here is the further test of MM50/W:

Possibly the crucial one.

הערה:

So far price action is adhering to the idea posted above after a fakeout.
here is current picture:

Bulls need MA50/W to hold once again.
Even more important they need VOLUME.

Weekly close will give further insight.

הערה:

Putting it simply: bulls need a higher low on volume, confirmed on weekly close.
Let's see.

הערה:

Support tested and rejected again:

Let's move, this is getting old.

הערה:

Still there.

Plenty of wedges.

Time is tight, bulls need to bounce and recover above MA50/W on weekly close tomorrow. Close mattters, spikes don't.

הערה:

A third low is needed. Possibily a higher low.

הערה:

Let me further put this into perspective.
There are historical reasons we DON'T want to see a weekly and monthly close below the 31.700$ mark.

I wrote already about MA50/W, but we ahould also consider the qhole super-cycle FIB 1.618 factor:

FIB 1.618 of previous ATH should act as support or the risk of a correction down to previous ATH would become pretty consistent.

הערה:

At suppport and on edge of wedge.

Do or die now, faling here would likely imply a falling knife.

הערה:

At support.

Let's continue here: