BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Consolidation Nation.

22 בנוב׳ 2017

BTCUSD update: This market is consolidating within a 300 point range, still within the reversal zone but the longer it stays at these levels, the greater the chance of another bullish breakout.

What about the head and shoulders on the 4 hour chart? There is a head and shoulders formation that should not be ignored, but you have to consider the bigger picture. Price is consolidating near the highs and more importantly, NOT taking out any lows. Even on these wild 300 to 500 point gyrations, this market is still holding up well considering where it is.

The head and shoulders is meaningful, but IF this market does not decisively break below 8k and paint a closed candle on its lows, then it is likely to break higher. Once again a condition like this is conflicting and confusing, but the overall trend carries more weight and is still in play until the market proves otherwise. Day trading is your best strategy in my opinion to capitalize on the minor weakness, while waiting to see if the market takes out any significant lows.

8K is not only an old resistance/new support but it is also the .382 support measured from the 7412 low. If this support is not taken out soon, the market is telling us that it is strong, even in the face of a head and shoulders. Keep in mind that consolidations are trend continuation patterns, not reversals. Price may still be in the reversal zone, but that does not mean it will produce a bearish reversal.

On top of that, it is a holiday in the U.S. which is very likely to affect volume and make for a range bound market. Over the next two and a half days, U.S. participants will be focused on everything but the markets. That is why the stock market closes early and forex brokers widen their spreads. Obviously this holiday is not celebrated around the world, but U.S. volume is a big factor in these markets.Over the years I learned it is best to avoid trading all together during this time. Just something to keep in mind.

In summary if this market is going to be a short, let it make the first move. This means it is okay to miss the initial move which has to break the relevant supports, then look to get in on a shallow retrace (day trading especially). When markets are weak, they reject resistance levels FAST and do not retrace right back to highs in a matter of hours. That is why I am more convinced that this is a consolidation and setting up to make a run for the 8500 resistance level over the next few days (low volume doesn't mean the market won't move at all, it means the movements have a greater tendency to be more random). Do not be confused by the head and shoulders because the general trend is still intact which means at the moment, this market is likely to go higher. These conditions do not fit the criteria of my swing trading plan at all, so I will continue to stay flat.

Comments and questions welcome.