BTC Bull-trap - A possibility - I mean probability.
מעודכן
After what can only be the most synthetic of pumps (big 30-50 btc buy walls coercing the price upwards) we have found ourselves in a land of potential. But for what?
1 "The IHS" - Yes, the IHS. After a week of trolling some 'know it all' bears on twitter with "the IHS" I felt it was time to reflect. What if this time, it isn't a bear-trap? What if this time there is a mangled and manipulated IHS drawn, and it pays off?
You see, for the last how many months there have been IHS drawn all over this downtrend, with each and every one being hammered down and used as a way to transfer money from poor people to the hands of rich whales, banks, manipulatords, the Masons, The Church, CME, Aliens, and Botje. Each IHS starts like the book of Genesis, and ends like the book of Genesis. So I am looking at this IHS that looks like it has been drawn by a child on an Etch a sketch (google it Z gen kids) and I am thinking "dont buy this" Look at the 1D bear div, Look at how it's barely an IHS. It's passable, but passable in the clearly fabricated way.
SO I BUY IT - because I know what I am doing.
And what I am doing is recklessly gambling against my better judgment because I get bored - No experienced trader in their right mind would buy this unless there middle name is "Danger" The people who buy this are those so desperate to maximise their profits and dreams that they will be led astray into fomo slaughter. Now this is not to say IT WON'T WORK. But I want to say that this shouldn't be the signal. Most traders are sitting with most of their money above 6800 waiting for a clear break. (look at the volume)
2 The Pump - Now this is difficult to show you on TV as I cant screenshot volume profiles on exchanges, but if anyone was watching the buying and selling during the pump they would have clearly seen 15-80btc buy and sell walls disappear, then appear to move all over the place to coerce the price upwards, then come slamming down when the price hit 6690-6750. SECOND WARNING. In addition to the pump, it has had no rest up and without turning that significant 6800 line into support, it is merely built upon sticks. (see RSI)
3 Volume - It is not the be all and end all, but in these situations, it matters. We had some nice volume turn up. Then it went on vacation and hasn't seemed to come back. THIRD WARNING This happened with every other IHS bulltrap in the last five months.
4 The 50 Day MA / 300 4hMA - for the purposes of the chart I’ll talk about the 300MA on 4Hr. This is a beast, it gets a little bit broken now and then, but it needs the volume to stay above it. What’s most important is what it is doing, and that is slicing through under the 6800 resistance and carving a shape into our ascending triangle that every man and his dog is drawing like fractal accuracy isn't important anymore. Or more to the point, because they dont want to see the actual shape it makes.
5 The ascending triangle - It’s not one yet. Just like a badly drawn IHS you’ll see all over the Internet, you’ll also see every person trying to draw an ascending triangle. It’s not. It’s a Bearish Pennant and a continuation pattern. When we break up to 6800 then it will become an ascending triangle. One is a bilateral and could still mean down. The other almost still means down. We are on the latter.
So we have a shape that could not be a shape, which has projected us into a shape that could not be that shape, under a huge resistance. Monthly Oscilators are not quite setup for a bullrun - Haven't we been here before?
There is no volume again, and BTC is as oversold on the 4hr RSI as late November and late April.
IF THIS BREAKS 6800 cleanly, then expect something quite explosive. However, I don't think we will even see 6800, I see us returning to the bottom of this pennant/trend-line and then below.
1 "The IHS" - Yes, the IHS. After a week of trolling some 'know it all' bears on twitter with "the IHS" I felt it was time to reflect. What if this time, it isn't a bear-trap? What if this time there is a mangled and manipulated IHS drawn, and it pays off?
You see, for the last how many months there have been IHS drawn all over this downtrend, with each and every one being hammered down and used as a way to transfer money from poor people to the hands of rich whales, banks, manipulatords, the Masons, The Church, CME, Aliens, and Botje. Each IHS starts like the book of Genesis, and ends like the book of Genesis. So I am looking at this IHS that looks like it has been drawn by a child on an Etch a sketch (google it Z gen kids) and I am thinking "dont buy this" Look at the 1D bear div, Look at how it's barely an IHS. It's passable, but passable in the clearly fabricated way.
SO I BUY IT - because I know what I am doing.
And what I am doing is recklessly gambling against my better judgment because I get bored - No experienced trader in their right mind would buy this unless there middle name is "Danger" The people who buy this are those so desperate to maximise their profits and dreams that they will be led astray into fomo slaughter. Now this is not to say IT WON'T WORK. But I want to say that this shouldn't be the signal. Most traders are sitting with most of their money above 6800 waiting for a clear break. (look at the volume)
2 The Pump - Now this is difficult to show you on TV as I cant screenshot volume profiles on exchanges, but if anyone was watching the buying and selling during the pump they would have clearly seen 15-80btc buy and sell walls disappear, then appear to move all over the place to coerce the price upwards, then come slamming down when the price hit 6690-6750. SECOND WARNING. In addition to the pump, it has had no rest up and without turning that significant 6800 line into support, it is merely built upon sticks. (see RSI)
3 Volume - It is not the be all and end all, but in these situations, it matters. We had some nice volume turn up. Then it went on vacation and hasn't seemed to come back. THIRD WARNING This happened with every other IHS bulltrap in the last five months.
4 The 50 Day MA / 300 4hMA - for the purposes of the chart I’ll talk about the 300MA on 4Hr. This is a beast, it gets a little bit broken now and then, but it needs the volume to stay above it. What’s most important is what it is doing, and that is slicing through under the 6800 resistance and carving a shape into our ascending triangle that every man and his dog is drawing like fractal accuracy isn't important anymore. Or more to the point, because they dont want to see the actual shape it makes.
5 The ascending triangle - It’s not one yet. Just like a badly drawn IHS you’ll see all over the Internet, you’ll also see every person trying to draw an ascending triangle. It’s not. It’s a Bearish Pennant and a continuation pattern. When we break up to 6800 then it will become an ascending triangle. One is a bilateral and could still mean down. The other almost still means down. We are on the latter.
So we have a shape that could not be a shape, which has projected us into a shape that could not be that shape, under a huge resistance. Monthly Oscilators are not quite setup for a bullrun - Haven't we been here before?
There is no volume again, and BTC is as oversold on the 4hr RSI as late November and late April.
IF THIS BREAKS 6800 cleanly, then expect something quite explosive. However, I don't think we will even see 6800, I see us returning to the bottom of this pennant/trend-line and then below.
הערה
הערה
Well. What an explosion that was! It has taken me a while to compute where we are and what I think will happen next. When things do not pan out the way you expect; take a step back, and do not trade until you feel like you know where to enter.
I hope those of us who sold before 6800 put buy stops put in place above 6800 to catch the gains.
I will be back with a better idea of where I think this chart is going, but at present, this pump has formed a rising wedge, which would indicate BTC break-down from here before making the next move up.
Targets are 7251 and 6828
On the upside, BTC can push for 7781 before I feel this wedge will break down.
Everything is a little up in the air at the moment. I keep by my sentiments that this move is very much a fabricated one, but it may have the legs to inspire something bigger. However, If BTC pushes up from here and does not retrace to 6828 in the next couple of day, I expect a bloodbath - Bull-runs normally start after a massacre, and this looks like it is offering up a huge fall.
If we zoom out on the 1D we can see the 200 and 300D Moving average about to cross in the next couple of days. The last time that happened was July 2014, and the market took an entire year to recover after! I am not expecting the same here, Before this spike, I was estimating we would begin a bullish run from early/Mid August - If we look at the fractal there is still a lot of space for us to move downwards/sideways/up before we hit the bottom up-trendline. Good luck.
הערה
Some bearish div on this bull flag Stay aware. This could still move in either direction and quite quickly. But we are looking at a leg down.
If the flag does start falling away quickly, then this whole wall will fall down. A more progressive retracement would signify a bullish move from here.
הערה
Apologies in advance to your eyes. I have pulled back the fractal chart that I started drawing a couple of months back and put to bed because; if you weren't me and understood it, it was agonizingly painful to look at. But here it is. We can clearly see the similarity and structure of the last crash, but also the fundamental differences showing in BTC's chart line. 2014 is loose, and confused. You can see how undomesticated the market is, and that is reflected in BTC's maturity as a concept, but also as a useable measure of value. You can see MTgox etc..
Skip to 2017/18 and everything is much tighter, ordered, and logical. We still follow the three triangle fractals, but the order and dynamic is completely different (for reference the red triangle in 2018 is under construction from BTC's current position and is not verified, but given the BTC's current path, and the exactitude which it lines up, I feel it is probably complete)
I am going to create a separate post about these two charts, but for now, I am going leave this ambiguity here. Please comment about what you see.
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