The Forming Crypto Bull Leg Thesis

1 במרץ

While in the 100K range I posted various different possible paths for 100K rejections, based on the 1.61 extension inflection and how we tend to act at that.

1.61 levels are always a spot to be careful. They can pullback a little, a lot and they can even mark full blown reversals. Sometimes 1.61 break and produce strong uptrends. There's a mix of things that can happen at them, but in all instances- when we reach a 1.61 there's a big decision to be made.

We failed to break over the 1.61 and this has resulted in a period of capitulation. Which is extremely common. While shorting a 1.61 can go badly and result in immediate stop out on the break, when a 1.61 short works you're going to usually see capitulation and if you have decent trading strategies you can parlay this into 10% or so gain for 1% risk.

Now we're inside a capitulation, there are a few ways this can go. We could just butter through all the supports. This being a true blow off and us downtrending. In those setups we'll tend to break the last low and a target of about 10K on BTC would be implied by this move.

When we're at points I think may be a top, I tend to discuss the worst risk move - because that's the one you have to know about. If you're ready for the worst risk move, then you're not going to get nailed by the break and by not getting nailed by the break you also make it possible for you to be ready to plan to buy lower prices and benefit if anything other than the worst happens.

In the macro, I think BTC has more to go in any drop (I say macro because I believe we might bounce from 77K - 95K (See below idea).

If and when we break lower and hit some real support then there are a few ways it can go. I somewhat find myself leaning towards one of my original forecasts around 100K which was we'd break to somewhere close to 60K, recover and spike out the high and then there could be a bigger reversal.

See below idea.

See below idea.

Or we could make a nice clean low and then build a brand new set of Elliot waves.


Ultimately hitting the targets many bulls have had in mind all along and also following the typical trend template of a TA uptrend.


I would like to see some real blood and guts capitulation to the technical bullish continue level before getting too involved in longs but I can see myself picking up a bunch of longs if we slam to 60K. My target for the move will be a little shy of 100% and if and when we get back to the high I'll then map out the failed breakout/real breakout plans to deal with what comes after that.

But the contrarian reversal trader in me us starting to get more interested in the long. If I see a panic sell off to 60K I'll be trying to catch a knife.

As Warren Buffet says;

"Short when everyone is calling you names, buy when they don't want to talk about it anymore".


He says something like that. I'm paraphrasing.

לפני 7 ימים

הערה

Bounce could be shallower. Out longs this looks like resis.

לפני 7 ימים

הערה

I think this might be the bounce high.