Bitcoin: Long-Term Thoughts
Is the bottom in? possibly, but I doubt it. can we "double bubble" and see exponential price growth in the next couple years? absolutely. is the huge increase in general bullishness this past week on bitcoin justified? definitely not.
don't forget to zoom out. the (bearish, as many would call it) forecast I detailed in my last post over a month ago on June 13 (reposted below for your convenience) is unchanged and a move like this (thus far) is not surprising nor disqualifies or even renders the most bearish paths significantly less likely. a bounce like this is to be expected with all the down movement we've had coming off of months of violent upwards momentum.
I'm expecting one of the following paths to play out roughly, with gyrations of amplitudes/volatility that directly relate to the slope of the arrows
Please see this idea that I posted within the last hour for my more short term (upcoming weeks) thoughts:
Written on June 13, 2018:
with the break of 7K, bitcoin has essentially bearishly broken the weekly equilibrium pattern that I've been talking about for the last few months (7/19/18 edit: with surprisingly low volume, though)
this forecasts dramatically lower prices and bearish price action over the next couple months/years for the crypto market
I'm eyeing the low-mid 59X0s as a good entry for a multiday 10-15% bounce (7/19/18 edit: this happened, though from $6150->$6850 painting the left shoulder for this current move)
still expecting considerably lower prices
expecting slow, grindy, low volume price movement down over the next several months followed by further low volume, grindy sideways price movement at the bottom
slow, grindy, low-volume price action will wipe out short-term trading opportunity. if you like short-term trading, it's time to begin looking to other markets for opportunity - I've moved to trading legacy market futures
much more violent downwards movement (over the next few weeks/months) is unlikely but would be unsustainable and would set the stage for a strong recovery and reversal much sooner (again: quite unlikely)
the far more realistic scenario is that it will take 9-18 months before we approach and break ATHs
and by all the above, I'm talking about bitcoin - I think most altcoins will lose nearly all their value (note: 7, 8, and 9 digit $ valuations are huge no matter how high a coin or token was at one point valued at) and not get back to anywhere near previous levels.
I'm not counting litecoin out over the next few years, but I expect it to perform especially terribly over the next 9-18 months
don't forget to zoom out. the (bearish, as many would call it) forecast I detailed in my last post over a month ago on June 13 (reposted below for your convenience) is unchanged and a move like this (thus far) is not surprising nor disqualifies or even renders the most bearish paths significantly less likely. a bounce like this is to be expected with all the down movement we've had coming off of months of violent upwards momentum.
I'm expecting one of the following paths to play out roughly, with gyrations of amplitudes/volatility that directly relate to the slope of the arrows
Please see this idea that I posted within the last hour for my more short term (upcoming weeks) thoughts:
Written on June 13, 2018:
with the break of 7K, bitcoin has essentially bearishly broken the weekly equilibrium pattern that I've been talking about for the last few months (7/19/18 edit: with surprisingly low volume, though)
this forecasts dramatically lower prices and bearish price action over the next couple months/years for the crypto market
I'm eyeing the low-mid 59X0s as a good entry for a multiday 10-15% bounce (7/19/18 edit: this happened, though from $6150->$6850 painting the left shoulder for this current move)
still expecting considerably lower prices
expecting slow, grindy, low volume price movement down over the next several months followed by further low volume, grindy sideways price movement at the bottom
slow, grindy, low-volume price action will wipe out short-term trading opportunity. if you like short-term trading, it's time to begin looking to other markets for opportunity - I've moved to trading legacy market futures
much more violent downwards movement (over the next few weeks/months) is unlikely but would be unsustainable and would set the stage for a strong recovery and reversal much sooner (again: quite unlikely)
the far more realistic scenario is that it will take 9-18 months before we approach and break ATHs
and by all the above, I'm talking about bitcoin - I think most altcoins will lose nearly all their value (note: 7, 8, and 9 digit $ valuations are huge no matter how high a coin or token was at one point valued at) and not get back to anywhere near previous levels.
I'm not counting litecoin out over the next few years, but I expect it to perform especially terribly over the next 9-18 months
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