ביטקויןלונג
The Next Bitcoin Cycle
Preliminary research. Spitballing here, don't want to dwell on this too long for now.
Something like this looks reasonable. First multi week long 25-45% pullback to happen from $40-65k region.
Are cycles trending towards being longer and yielding less gains? Probably. Unclear to what degree and to what variation. Also unclear whether this cycle will strictly comport with that trend.
In 2018, I was worried about bitcoin succumbing to crypto politics, particularly with regards to BCH, forks, competing chains. Worried about losing bitcoin believers and potential believers to a fragmenting and fraudulent cryptocurrency landscape. Worried about other projects erupting from the chaos to attain market dominance via some technological superiority or compelling use case.
Years later, no project has gained any relatively significant adoption and all BTC forks have faded to obscurity. With Bitcoin dominance and price rocketing yet again, it looks like Bitcoin is destined for an amazing future. The Schelling point coin of this new emerging asset class. The standard. The first, the most secure, the most known. By far.
It will be the number one market cap cryptocurrency for years. If not, it'll still be among the very top, and that'll be because some other project/s reached unbelievable success and adoption, and bitcoin will be pulled further up with that anyways.
>50 million millionaires. 21 million bitcoin, effectively much less. Higher prices drive excitement and greater demand.
HNW individuals, corporations, institutions, and countries will diversify into bitcoin.
If nothing else, here's gold versus bitcoin:
Gold: analog "hard" money, current market cap 10T, doomed to asteroid mining or some other technological innovation meme.
Bitcoin: genuinely hard digital money, current market cap <1T.
40K?! Bro omg you better sell!!
Not until it's standard for all entities to diversify their investments into bitcoin. Not until bitcoin is significantly higher market cap than gold.
Custodial friction, regulatory issues, non-technologically-inclined and non-open-minded individuals are the untapped sources for the rocket fuel that will take us to new heights.
I only touched on a bit of the bull case, but it doesn't matter. It's a buy.
We've got a long way to go.
Something like this looks reasonable. First multi week long 25-45% pullback to happen from $40-65k region.
Are cycles trending towards being longer and yielding less gains? Probably. Unclear to what degree and to what variation. Also unclear whether this cycle will strictly comport with that trend.
In 2018, I was worried about bitcoin succumbing to crypto politics, particularly with regards to BCH, forks, competing chains. Worried about losing bitcoin believers and potential believers to a fragmenting and fraudulent cryptocurrency landscape. Worried about other projects erupting from the chaos to attain market dominance via some technological superiority or compelling use case.
Years later, no project has gained any relatively significant adoption and all BTC forks have faded to obscurity. With Bitcoin dominance and price rocketing yet again, it looks like Bitcoin is destined for an amazing future. The Schelling point coin of this new emerging asset class. The standard. The first, the most secure, the most known. By far.
It will be the number one market cap cryptocurrency for years. If not, it'll still be among the very top, and that'll be because some other project/s reached unbelievable success and adoption, and bitcoin will be pulled further up with that anyways.
>50 million millionaires. 21 million bitcoin, effectively much less. Higher prices drive excitement and greater demand.
HNW individuals, corporations, institutions, and countries will diversify into bitcoin.
If nothing else, here's gold versus bitcoin:
Gold: analog "hard" money, current market cap 10T, doomed to asteroid mining or some other technological innovation meme.
Bitcoin: genuinely hard digital money, current market cap <1T.
40K?! Bro omg you better sell!!
Not until it's standard for all entities to diversify their investments into bitcoin. Not until bitcoin is significantly higher market cap than gold.
Custodial friction, regulatory issues, non-technologically-inclined and non-open-minded individuals are the untapped sources for the rocket fuel that will take us to new heights.
I only touched on a bit of the bull case, but it doesn't matter. It's a buy.
We've got a long way to go.
כתב ויתור
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