BTCUSD: Resistance Zone Is First Profit Opportunity?

15 בפבר׳ 2018

BTCUSD update: Bullish momentum is in effect as price reaches the 9887 to 10836 resistance zone, coming off of the recent higher low formation. This is where the herd begins to get excited, and also where the first profit target should be considered for swing trades.

On 2/11/18 I highlighted a swing trade that triggered on the break of the 8570 candle high (I got filled at 8690, it's in the report). I am holding for a broader move, but for those who were more interested in a swing trade (short term move, defined stop and target), the first target area is about 650 points away.

The 9887 to 10836 is the first resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing), that is being tested since the sell off. The swing trade target that I highlighted is the 10500 level which is basically in the middle of the zone. Why sell if this market still has a lot of room to run?

This is the first level to consider locking in SOME profit, not your entire position. IF you got long around the 8690 level, you are up almost 1200 points at the moment. and at 10,500 you would be up 1800. Not bad for 5 days, so why not lock some in? It reduces risk and allows you to outperform the buy and hold strategy in an environment that is not the most stable.

Remember the herd mentality. When markets start breaking resistances and pushing highs, the crowd reacts. This type of reaction, which is now in the form of strength is an opportunity for those who were able to anticipate this move to sell into strength. This is a best practice and the only obstacle in your way is greed. What about the bigger picture trade though?

This is where your perspective, outlook and risk tolerance come into play. The positions that I built as this market bottomed were part of a position trade. I did not use any stops or targets because my outlook is anticipating the broader trend to reassert itself. For my trade, that scenario would be confirmed upon the break of the bearish trend line that was established in January. This would put price around the 12K area. As I hold out for these possibilities, I am taking more risk. The market can turn back at any moment and retest the 8Ks or even lower IF this market goes into a range bound scenario.

So with that said, for my position trade, I intend to lock in SOME profit IF we reach the trend line and get a bearish reversal candle. If on the other hand, price blows through, then there is no reason to sell until the next resistance takes hold which can be in the high 13Ks. If I am going to lock in some profit, I at least want to make sure I have given the market a chance to maximize it. Another way to do this is to use a manual trailing stop which you place at the low of the previous candle. This is a good technique for when you have reached an acceptable profit target, and there is no reason to sell. Just trail the stop and let the market take you out.

In summary, hopefully from the series of my previous reports, you can piece together the process that I covered to build my long position trade in this market. Now that we are at a resistance, I have the luxury I deciding if I want to lock in some profit or hold to see if my bigger picture anticipation plays out. The key point is: from start to finish I have been following a plan and NOT reacting to anything. At the current resistance area, best practices tell me that this is an area to consider locking in profit, and NOT buying. If you missed all the buying opportunities that I have been writing about, and you buy now, you are taking much greater risk and buying into a resistance level. This area is an opportunity for people who want to lock in some profit, not initiate new positions. A break of the current bullish trend line will negate this momentum, so be mindful of that and manage your risk carefully. Otherwise, besides locking some in, the other best practice is let winners run. That is my plan until broader resistance levels are in play.

Questions and comments welcome.