ביטקויןלונג
BTC MACRO picture; Breakout of H&S to target 49k to 52k;
As I first posted on 23Mar, truly BTC formed the LS in 23 days, the head in 66 days & the right shoulder in 22 days. On 27 Mar it rallied with strength breaking out of the very crucial 46K.
BTC right now is above the dma100 & will soon be attacking the dma150, then the red dma200. There are few horizontal resistances in this zone so if it succeeds, then the next major battleground will be the 49k to 52k zone.
If you measure the height of the H&S pattern, The FINAL FUTURE DESTINATION of BTC seems to be 60k. However, that is quite far away. it will encounter resistance at dma150 & dma200 & may retreat, shake out some sellers & gather more buyers back at a rising green dma50 line. (The blue cross if the projected GOLDEN CROSS dma50 x dma200)
This projected dma 50 will provide the launching pad to push BTC to the next battlezone at the 49k to 52k zone. BTC may face a major correction at this zone. Going to 60k will take a lot of hard work for the bulls.
Worst case scenario: Rejection at this battlezone may signal a big correction later 2022 especially when equities fall due to FED tightenning & multiple 50 bps rate hikes till the end of 2022. This may suggest that from the 69k top, BTC is doing a large ABC correction. Wave A is from 69k to 33k. Wave B runs from 33k to maybe the 49k-52k zone. Final wave C from 49k/52k down to retest the 29k zone.
Positive scenario is when inflation calms down 2H2022 while GNP grows, avoiding the feared STAGNATION thesis (staggering economy with rising inflation). This will push the FED to become more dovish again scaling down the planned rate hikes. The 10 yr rate may peak out at 2.5% to 2.6% coz the bond vigilantes are already selling bonds doing the work for the FED causing rates to zoom to 2.5%.
Hopefully the yield curve will not invert as we are now very very near ZERO. Inverted yield curve historically is an advance indicator of recession 6 months to 1 year going forward from date of inversion. This is usually the final melt-up period for risk assets including BTC before the crash.
Not financial advice just my own analysis.
BTC right now is above the dma100 & will soon be attacking the dma150, then the red dma200. There are few horizontal resistances in this zone so if it succeeds, then the next major battleground will be the 49k to 52k zone.
If you measure the height of the H&S pattern, The FINAL FUTURE DESTINATION of BTC seems to be 60k. However, that is quite far away. it will encounter resistance at dma150 & dma200 & may retreat, shake out some sellers & gather more buyers back at a rising green dma50 line. (The blue cross if the projected GOLDEN CROSS dma50 x dma200)
This projected dma 50 will provide the launching pad to push BTC to the next battlezone at the 49k to 52k zone. BTC may face a major correction at this zone. Going to 60k will take a lot of hard work for the bulls.
Worst case scenario: Rejection at this battlezone may signal a big correction later 2022 especially when equities fall due to FED tightenning & multiple 50 bps rate hikes till the end of 2022. This may suggest that from the 69k top, BTC is doing a large ABC correction. Wave A is from 69k to 33k. Wave B runs from 33k to maybe the 49k-52k zone. Final wave C from 49k/52k down to retest the 29k zone.
Positive scenario is when inflation calms down 2H2022 while GNP grows, avoiding the feared STAGNATION thesis (staggering economy with rising inflation). This will push the FED to become more dovish again scaling down the planned rate hikes. The 10 yr rate may peak out at 2.5% to 2.6% coz the bond vigilantes are already selling bonds doing the work for the FED causing rates to zoom to 2.5%.
Hopefully the yield curve will not invert as we are now very very near ZERO. Inverted yield curve historically is an advance indicator of recession 6 months to 1 year going forward from date of inversion. This is usually the final melt-up period for risk assets including BTC before the crash.
Not financial advice just my own analysis.
כתב ויתור
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