Final dip needed before bull run?
מעודכן
During my holidays, BTC has been following on the daily chart the smaller 1.0 fib circle from the circle patterns that I traced before I left. Not so much of a rally, that I didn't take coz walking in the mountains sounded better.
Now it looks we are approaching to a conclusion. We are going to hit the big 1.618 circle in about 1 day.
My first guess (orange scenario) is that even if during this time we are going up, the price won't run above $7200-7300 resistance zone and the 1.618 circle will send us down to hit the black uptrend line and the 1.618 smaller circle at about $5500; I think that is the lowest we can get for now. The daily bearish cycle has started already on the Stoch RSI, which supports such immediate retrace.
However (cyan scenario on the daily) the 2h chart (below) still allows to go higher from this point, to hit the $7500 red line and retrace from there; we are on a bullish cycle start on the 2h chart stoch RSI, and the RSI is low enough for a new mini-rally. But if this happens, the big ABC wave pattern (or bear flag if you want) would require the target to be about $4800-5000; I think this is less probable right now due to the support of the uptrend lines and the strong $6000 line, which extended its support zone down to $5700 but I don't think in can go much lower. Therefore the 2h bull cycle could be satisfied until next day only by going sideways and up to max $7300; I don't think bulls can break the big 1.618 circle yet, they need to make people sell first for that.
Now it looks we are approaching to a conclusion. We are going to hit the big 1.618 circle in about 1 day.
My first guess (orange scenario) is that even if during this time we are going up, the price won't run above $7200-7300 resistance zone and the 1.618 circle will send us down to hit the black uptrend line and the 1.618 smaller circle at about $5500; I think that is the lowest we can get for now. The daily bearish cycle has started already on the Stoch RSI, which supports such immediate retrace.
However (cyan scenario on the daily) the 2h chart (below) still allows to go higher from this point, to hit the $7500 red line and retrace from there; we are on a bullish cycle start on the 2h chart stoch RSI, and the RSI is low enough for a new mini-rally. But if this happens, the big ABC wave pattern (or bear flag if you want) would require the target to be about $4800-5000; I think this is less probable right now due to the support of the uptrend lines and the strong $6000 line, which extended its support zone down to $5700 but I don't think in can go much lower. Therefore the 2h bull cycle could be satisfied until next day only by going sideways and up to max $7300; I don't think bulls can break the big 1.618 circle yet, they need to make people sell first for that.
הערה
Not much happened since yesterday, the 2h bull cycle did happen by going mostly sideways as I guessed. It is now rather unlikely to go to $7200 as we need to start a bear cycle now, so we are still in the orange scenario. But if we can cross the big 1.618 circle by going sideways, then the 2h bear cycle will complete and the cyan scenario will become more likely. Anyway, we won't have a bull run yet if we don't break up both thin black downtrend lines in order to get out of any descending triangle pattern. So most likely we have to touch again $6000, even break down the triangle first. How much, it is hard to say: all patterns would send us lower than $5500 but the technical limit (bitcoin mining cost) would be around $5700, so all supports should try to keep us above; therefore we could go lower only for a short time. Meanwhile, nearing the point of the triangle, the crashing market looks about to end, and we should soon find support on the long term uptrend lines one by one.I might be lazy on updates after this one, since a lot of work is profiling at the horizon...
הערה
The price tried to follow the big 1.618 circle but for a very short time. It was pierced by going sideways and we passed the 4.618 outer magenta circle from the other set going upwards; that circle pattern lost effect now and I'm going to delete them. After a mini-rally to the $7200 resistance zone, the 2h chart prints a new bear on the stoch RSI by mostly going sideways. We are still staying on the upper quarter of the pitchfork, so we are probably going to follow the cyan scenario. But because we seem to near the end of the crash market, patterns may break sometimes. Going long can be a good option, but however better prices are likely to happen again.
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