The drop: Elliott Wave + H&S

24 במאי 2021

Hello and happy Monday traders. I hope you had a great weekend, got out and re-energized from the big dip over the last ~2 weeks. :D
**NOTE** I have my monitor in portrait view, so I appologize if because of that it's hard to read my chart. Please let me know and I can make screenshots in the future too, that would allow you to zoom better?

Prior to the dip, I noticed a Head and Shoulders forming on the daily chart. To me, this spelled a lot of trouble if it was going to complete. The day of the big dip, it completed the pattern.

Elliott Wave Ideas
Possible 3 Wave system from Monthly Chart


Where I think BTC is currently. In its 2nd wave for a correction before going into a 3rd wave up. I hypothesize that BTC will correct for a months period of time from when it started. My reasoning behind this is because the information supporting this argument is analyzed from the monthly chart, thus a months worth of correction. BTC is also slower moving, more 'stable' than everything else in the crypto market.


Regarding the above 1st wave idea, diving down into the 2W, 1W, and D chart, you can verify that there are nested Elliott Wave systems inside the monthly wave. Further verifying this hypothesis for me.

Indicators:
MACD-X

In the above image, I have measured the days spend in major MACD periods.
Prior, 11D and 12D were spent in a MACD downtrend indication. We are currently 13D in BTC's correction and MACD hasn't pinched off yet to cross into a uptrend indicator.
I suspect a couple of days before we can see if it's headed to pinch and cross or not.
Weekly MACD

Probably more indictive of the future. If we assume today is the peak, there's several weeks worth of the histogram that will 'shrink' prior to the cross. This assume the curve of the history is sort of symmetric in shape.

Stoch & RSI-X
Daily indicators for RSI-X appear to be pointing outward of being oversold.
Stoch has crossed and with upward slope.
Weekly
This is the information I feel is more indictive of the situation.
RSI-X
Both Price and Volume indications are pointing down. People still are looking to sell it seems?
Stoch
Crossed into a downtrend and pointing down, still outside of the zone too.

News and stuff
So we've all heard and see the blame towards Elon. I believe this blame is a false positive.
Does Elon hold influence? Yes. But are you telling me he influenced major bitcoin holders to sell? And a majority of them? No. He, like others tried to adopt BTC as a payment form and changed his mind. This is not malicious, it is a business decision. Will the same blame be placed to other companies who drop BTC as a payment form? I doubt it. Those who believe this to be malicious and have also turned to be malicious themselves, making them just as bad as the person they are complaining about.
Treat others as you wish to be treated.

What I really think is going on here. The US Gov. is after Binance(plus others) and Crypto in general.
decrypt.co/70837/crypto-market-reacts-binance-irs-investigation-shedding-150-billion-hour

This is but one of many examples of how the US Gov. is coming after Crypto. It's unfortunate since blockchain technology could be adopted to replace USD currency. This would resolve a lot of issues the Gov. has with money laundering, as a public ledger would allow tracking. Not only for the Gov. but for the People as well. We could see where and how the Gov. spends money exactly. Could you image if it was allowed it to be mined and staked? Staking itself could potentially remove the need of the federal reserve, removing the need for bonds and other 'backed' fake money. Simplify the process would be the goal. But I digress.../rant

Final thoughts
At the end of the day, I believe this is just a normal market movement when looking at the monthly chart as a wave. I had come across an article that I can no longer find, but it had mentioned prior to the major sell off that binance or bitfinex (maybe both..I wish I could find the link) that they saw the largest deposits of bitcoin ever. It was a link I thought I had seen from the news tab here on Tradingview but, the past history of news articles doesn't go back as far as I would need to find it.

As crypto picks up in popularity, more large businesses will attempt to pick it up. They may keep it, or ditch it. This seems apart of normal market flow, assuming you believe bitcoin should be picked up by any company as a form of payment. At the end of the day, in my opinion I think this is a great thing. This will prove it's use as a way to pay for things outside of trading. While this has already existed, I am thinking on the larger scale, where everyone could us it as a form of payment. It will have an impact on the price of bitcoin's future for sure.

Enjoy your week and happy trading to you all.