Bitcoin's Impressive Trajectory and the Road to $100,000

10 ביוני

Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has consistently exceeded projections and expectations. In just over a decade, its value has surged from mere pennies per coin to over $50,000 by 2021, capturing global attention.

As of June 2024, Bitcoin's price hovers around $70,000, with the next major milestone being the highly anticipated six-figure mark. While reaching $100,000 may seem ambitious, historical trends suggest it's increasingly likely. The pressing question remains: When will Bitcoin surpass the $100,000 threshold? Could it happen in 2024?

Any prediction regarding Bitcoin's future is inherently speculative, but such speculation encourages us to evaluate long-term developments in the investment landscape.

To forecast Bitcoin's performance, it's crucial to consider trends related to its halving events. A halving is a pre-programmed occurrence approximately every four years that halves the reward for mining new blocks, forming the basis of Bitcoin's monetary policy. This mechanism decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created over time, contributing to its scarcity and historically driving price appreciation. Bitcoin's most recent halving in April 2024 reduced its inflation rate to just 0.85%.

Examining previous halvings reveals that Bitcoin's price typically increases by around 125% in the year of a halving. Starting from a price of $44,000 at the beginning of 2024, a 125% increase would place Bitcoin at $99,000. If this halving has a similar impact as previous ones, Bitcoin should be close to the $100,000 mark in 2024. However, there's another variable to consider that could boost Bitcoin beyond this threshold: the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Historically, Bitcoin's rise was driven mainly by retail investors. With the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors can now accumulate Bitcoin without regulatory or custodial concerns. This new vehicle for Bitcoin exposure is already making an impact. In February, ETFs were purchasing Bitcoin at a rate 10 times the daily production rate, pushing its price to a new all-time high. Although the buying rate has cooled, it’s likely just the beginning. If buying resumes at those levels post-halving, ETFs would outpace Bitcoin's daily supply by 20 times.

2024 is shaping up to be the year Bitcoin could reach $100,000. With its price around $70,500 today, this represents a potential 40% gain. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin often sees its most significant gains in the year following a halving. Historically, Bitcoin has soared by more than 400% on average in the post-halving year. If Bitcoin doesn't reach $100,000 in 2024, 2025 remains a strong possibility.

Whether it happens this year or next, ongoing halvings, increasing adoption, and institutional involvement make a compelling case for Bitcoin to continue surprising us for years to come.