2024-09-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin

לפני 4 ימיםGood Evening and I hope you are well.

tl;dr
Bitcoin - I said if bulls get above 61500, they are favored for 64000+. High of the day was 63848. Next target for them is 65000 and if bears fail there, we will see 67000/68000 again. Right now it’s still a triangle on the daily chart and bulls had 3 pushes up. Slightly favoring the bears if they come around tomorrow and if it stays below 65000.


comment: 3 pushes up on the daily chart and near previous resistance between 64000 and 65000. For weeks now, every strong daily bar is followed by disappointment. If the market has done this so many times, I do not expect this to change and rather see bears coming around over the next 2-4 days again.

current market cycle: trading range (again a triangle on the daily chart)

key levels: 57000 - 65000

bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 65000 and trade back to 68000 and touch the bear trend line from the ath. Can they get it? I doubt it. We made 21% over the past 2 weeks but given that we made -30% in 7 days in July, this rally was weak. You can also draw the bull channel for the current rally but the arguments would be the same. We are at the top of the channel and prior resistance. I don’t expect market to find many buyers above 64000.
Invalidation is below 61500.

bear case: Until bulls can print 65000, odds favor the bears for a reversal. We are at prior resistance, the top of the bull channel, bulls had 3 legs up and the daily and weekly 20ema are as flat as can be. What are the odds of a big bullish breakout? Very low. Can happen but betting on it is a losing strategy. Best here is to wait. If bulls get it, join em. If bears come around, don’t sell the first pullback. Wait for a retest (probably on the 1h tf)
Invalidation is above 65000.

short term: Neutral. Bullish above 65000 and bearish below 61500 or on good momentum after a second signal.

medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —

current swing trade: Swing shorts got burned bad. None currently but looking for shorts again.

trade of the day: Very bullish day. Buying the 15m 20ema was profitable many times.