Bitcoin- Is the bottom in yet?
מעודכן
We all know that Bitcoin just hit the weekly 200 MA like in the past. Because of this and other facts like the incoming cross of 50 and 100 MA,which was the second time testing the bottom back in 2015, some of you might think the bottom is in, but some of you don´t.
I want to point out that in my opinion it is just too early to stick to one of them. As the chart above shows, there are some facts that show that the bottom might not be in yet.
Let´s get to these facts first, which is based on simple price action:
Back in 2015 the bottom showed a strong candle with a huge wick to the downside. Also there was a huge spike in volume compared to the volume before.
A reversal after such a big correction of this crazy bull market run has to show up with some clear reversal candle to me in the bigger time frame and a huge spike in volume.
Together they indicate a switch of market sentiment.
Looking at the "bottom candle" of the correction we are in right now, there is neither such a candle, nor enough volume to confirm a change in momentum!
Also, looking at the RSI, the first time we touched the RSI of 30 wasn´t the bottom, it was the second time! Right now the touch of the 200 MA was connected with
the first touch of the RSI 30.
Right now to me there are these two possibilities shown in the chart above and in the picture below. Which one is valid?
The next few weeks or month will show whether we fluctuate within this range we are right now or will have one more drop down.
Patience is key!
This is NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, just my own thoughts about the market!
I want to point out that in my opinion it is just too early to stick to one of them. As the chart above shows, there are some facts that show that the bottom might not be in yet.
Let´s get to these facts first, which is based on simple price action:
Back in 2015 the bottom showed a strong candle with a huge wick to the downside. Also there was a huge spike in volume compared to the volume before.
A reversal after such a big correction of this crazy bull market run has to show up with some clear reversal candle to me in the bigger time frame and a huge spike in volume.
Together they indicate a switch of market sentiment.
Looking at the "bottom candle" of the correction we are in right now, there is neither such a candle, nor enough volume to confirm a change in momentum!
Also, looking at the RSI, the first time we touched the RSI of 30 wasn´t the bottom, it was the second time! Right now the touch of the 200 MA was connected with
the first touch of the RSI 30.
Right now to me there are these two possibilities shown in the chart above and in the picture below. Which one is valid?
The next few weeks or month will show whether we fluctuate within this range we are right now or will have one more drop down.
Patience is key!
This is NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, just my own thoughts about the market!
הערה
Hello out there!
As I mentioned one year ago, based on pure price action, the move of Dec.18'down to ~ 3,2k was not a clear weekly reversal candle to me after the drop from 6k.
Looking at the structure today, the weekly candle looks pretty nasty BUT with high buying pressure at the end. Capitulation with huge volume and a huge wick back above the weekly MA200. Regarding just price action this is a clear sign of reversal.
We have to wait for the weekly candle to close and stay above the 200 WMA for (slowly) jumping into the market at this point. Environmental uncertainty combined with the Corona- hysteria can lead to non-predictable situations, so better be cautious! But from technicals and pure price action, which I prefer to keep it as simple and accurate as possible, this is a strong buttoming candle. These normally create lower lows which in this case didn't happen (stayed above 3,2k). A very bullish sign to me!
Keep in mind that this is NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, just my own thoughts about the market!
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