Bitcoin: Mixed Bullish and Bearish Signs 1D (Jun. 11)

10 ביוני 2020

X Force Global Analysis:


Bitcoin has been giving mixed signals of bullishness and bearishness for the past few days, showing strength on the side of both bulls and bears. We have previously mentioned that a break and close above 10.5k would confirm a bullish trend, while a break and close below 8.8k would confirm a bearish trend. However, prices have not reached anywhere near those zones, and while there were a plethora of bearish technicals, as evidence for a potentially bearish scenario, prices are slowly starting to move upwards. In this analysis, we explore both bullish and bearish cases suggested by Bitcoin's technicals on the daily chart.

Bullish Evidence

- Bitcoin has been on a technical uptrend, creating higher lows throughout weeks since we tested the local bottom at 3.5k
- The ascending trend line support still remains valid
- We see that prices are trading above the Ichimoku cloud, which is a sign of strong bullish momentum
- While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a bearish death cross, the histograms show a lack of momentum in bearish trend
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now trading at neutral zones, having traded at overbought territories

Bearish Evidence

- The bearish divergence is still valid, with prices creating higher highs, while the RSI and MACD create lower highs
- It could be said that we are currently distributing within a bearish rising wedge
- The recent bearish engulfing candle demonstrates that bears are still in control of the market
- The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance is yet to be broken

Market Sentiment:

Long short ratios are at 66 to 34, with significantly more long positions than short positions. The market sentiment has been dominantly bullish for a reason, as the trend has been bullish for the past few weeks.


What We Believe

While there is a plethora of evidence to substantiate arguments for both the bullish and bearish cases, we believe that further confirmations are necessary to determine whether Bitcoin is deemed for a corrective wave, or whether this bullish rally will continue through 11k, up to 14k levels.

Trade Safe.