Each of the last 2 cycles peaked at 3500% when measured from the bottom trendline of the channel where it is in line with lift-off candle after the cycle low. One could argue the 2017 high was over exuberant and the 2018 low wasn't deep enough. 3500% from the January 2023 lift off quarterly candle puts this cycle peak at $500k in October 2024. Also noticed that in each cycle, it takes 12 quarterly candles to make a new closing ATH. Would also hold true this cycle if we close above 58783 tomorrow. So maybe we're not early.
הערה:
We weren't early after all. The narrative that a new ATH must occur after the halving was incorrect. This quarterly candle was always destined to close above the previous closing ATH since it is the 12th.
הערה:
The Oct 2017 candle overshot the upper channel line by 127%. Turns out this is the exact distance between the lower wick of the Oct 2018 candle and the lower channel line, where it should have dropped to. This gap (between candle and channel line) was filled by the Jan 2020 COVID flash crash candle. I hypothesize that the previous cycle bull run couldn't continue until that gap was filled. Good news is that in this cycle we touched the lower channel line, so we're on track to moon to $500k without much of a hiccup.
הערה:
The October 2024 quarterly candle reflects price action from Oct 1st - Dec 31st, so it could actually take til the end of 2024 to see $500k.
הערה:
$500k assumes the cycle peaks at the upper channel line, of course it could overshoot or fall short. I will use the Pi Cycle Top Indicator to guide me. When it triggers, I will begin to scale out of positions.
הערה:
A Bitcoin cycle is measured from low to low. BTC lows consistently occur at 47 months after the previous low (see my "BTC Cycle Lows" publication). If this pattern continues, the next low should hit in October 2026. If the lift-off candle for the next cycle occurs in the first quarter of 2027, then Bitcoin should peak @$5 Million July - Sep 2028.