Bitcoin (BTC): Capitulation Is likely Coming
מעודכן
Despite the recent carnage we are seeing RECORD Longs from people attempting the catch the falling knife.
BTC has dropped so much that surely it can't possibly continue, right?
Well, the RSI on the Monthly tells a different story. Clearly, there is room to drop further before establishing a strong bottom.
NEVER before in BTC's history has Price tested the Monthly 40EMA and has been able to hold above it.
EVERY SINGLE TIME time it has lost support.
Furthermore, if we just take PA into account, this would be the ugliest bottom formed to date.
To add to the Bear case, we are seeing many Tech companies post miserable earnings, and just for an example; Unity
U just plummeted 40% after hours today. Roblox is following close, as well as a number of other tech stocks.
This has spread across the entirety of NASDAQ and the only reason the market is still holding is that Apple
AAPL leads the market. When they lose support, that is when capitulation happens across the stock market.
To touchback on the Long/Shorts side of the equation, let's take a look at the two charts below;
Here are the Longs currently on BTC: Clearly, you can see massive amounts of longs trying to catch the falling knife here
Here are the Shorts currently on BTC: Absent when compared to the May 2021 drop
Something I find odd is the lack of shorts in comparison to the longs here. If you compare both charts from Now VS Summer of 2021, you can see there is a vast amount of Longs in comparison to Shorts.
This means while liquidations are piling on for Longs, there is no imminent short squeeze on the table.
The only ones who seem to be squeezable are longs and given the Viscous Macro Bearish Trend here, Longs are at real risk.
The market is in the complacency stage. There has been blood and there is fear, but clearly not enough to scare buyers. The hard lessons haven't been learned yet.
It is still early.
Good luck everyone!
BTC has dropped so much that surely it can't possibly continue, right?
Well, the RSI on the Monthly tells a different story. Clearly, there is room to drop further before establishing a strong bottom.
NEVER before in BTC's history has Price tested the Monthly 40EMA and has been able to hold above it.
EVERY SINGLE TIME time it has lost support.
Furthermore, if we just take PA into account, this would be the ugliest bottom formed to date.
To add to the Bear case, we are seeing many Tech companies post miserable earnings, and just for an example; Unity
U just plummeted 40% after hours today. Roblox is following close, as well as a number of other tech stocks. This has spread across the entirety of NASDAQ and the only reason the market is still holding is that Apple
AAPL leads the market. When they lose support, that is when capitulation happens across the stock market.To touchback on the Long/Shorts side of the equation, let's take a look at the two charts below;
Here are the Longs currently on BTC: Clearly, you can see massive amounts of longs trying to catch the falling knife here
Here are the Shorts currently on BTC: Absent when compared to the May 2021 drop
Something I find odd is the lack of shorts in comparison to the longs here. If you compare both charts from Now VS Summer of 2021, you can see there is a vast amount of Longs in comparison to Shorts.
This means while liquidations are piling on for Longs, there is no imminent short squeeze on the table.
The only ones who seem to be squeezable are longs and given the Viscous Macro Bearish Trend here, Longs are at real risk.
The market is in the complacency stage. There has been blood and there is fear, but clearly not enough to scare buyers. The hard lessons haven't been learned yet.
It is still early.
Good luck everyone!
הערה
One last thing to add for now is the complete lack of any meaningful volume to set an Accumulation Bottom. Volume is gone:
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