6k BTC Incoming? Still Correction, not Bear
מעודכן
I refuse to believe that the neckline is diagonally slopping downwards. The neckline is being tested now at 13k which makes me believe that i am still correct in 13k being the neckline. Recounting some waves due to timeframe adjustment, I realize that for the ABC correction, we have done A and B. So this now fits my other 2 years retrenchment chart. Now lets wait for 13k neckline to break, we will see some pullbacks along the way due to the sharpness of correction giving the impression of fake bottom along the way. Beware of bull traps, many many of them and do not keep your short open all the way down.
Optimistic higher bottom, 9.4k, 8.5k but starting to doubt so. I was actually wondering where to fit my wave C for 5k BTC in previous chart and I realize my mistake. When ppl said I was crazy with 8k BTC H&S prediction before it even formed, that its not possible. Well, I agree, i was wrong. It is 6k BTC, not 8k =) A breakdown below 5k would put us into a bear market. 5k is the absolute bottom that must not break in order for a resumption of bull market after consolidation.
- Wave A to 10k - Done
- Wave B to 15k - Done
- Wave C to 6k - In Progress Now, probability 66%?
Optimistic higher bottom, 9.4k, 8.5k but starting to doubt so. I was actually wondering where to fit my wave C for 5k BTC in previous chart and I realize my mistake. When ppl said I was crazy with 8k BTC H&S prediction before it even formed, that its not possible. Well, I agree, i was wrong. It is 6k BTC, not 8k =) A breakdown below 5k would put us into a bear market. 5k is the absolute bottom that must not break in order for a resumption of bull market after consolidation.
הערה
I realize I didn't adjust the text in my red text box which says "A in Progress, Sub C Wave (4/5)", that's for my previous chart which might put the right shoulder on wave 4 but I realize now that its actually the bigger B wave up and not a sub wave 4.This is Wave C down as shown in this new chart.
הערה
13k neckline broken, going to see a support somewhere at 12k then pullback to 12.7k as a last ditch attempt to save the trapped bulls. After that, its free fall from with desperate attempts to secure a new bottom until the end. 13k will now become a major resistance. Next major support is around 10k. I am not expecting anymore reversal from here as the market confirms that the great bull market 2017 is over. As before, pls donate if this TA helped you =)
BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
הערה
Seems to be testing where support and resistance is at the moment, suggesting that the right shoulder had not completed and we are still forming the right shoulder of the B wave bull rally. That puts the neckline around 11.5k now. So 2 possibilities.1) If right shoulder has yet to formed, we should see it go higher from here to 15.7k again as part of a 2nd rescue effort. The market is still a little bullish in this case.
2) If neckline is 13k (a little slanted) and right shoulder has formed. This is just the pullback into the neckline before we go down. Still seeing BTC struggling with the resistance of the neckline.
The rising wedge atm is still a bearish sign and there is no sign of a downtrend reversal. I understand that many of you are used to BTC's fast pace speed but it will not immediately jump off from the bottom to 20k 30k 50k or beyond without consolidating first. There needs to be an accumulation phase.
הערה
I stretched the timeline to paint out the extended possibility.1) Real Neckline is diagonally downwards as previously refuted at 10.8k
2) BTC is now in ABC pattern to complete the B rally and form the right shoulder (wave count matches) A & B done, C going up to 16k.
3) It will come down to neckline at 10.8k, break it and the puzzle begins here. Whether we see BTC supported at 6.5k or 3k.
הערה
Rising wedge appears to have broken ahead of time, I don't think I can extend the rising wedge again. Major support is now at the 13k neckline again. Its going down from here most likely.הערה
The strange accumulation is back again. its starting to become obvious that someone is stocking up and its not clear what the intention is. At this point, we are at his mercy. And we are only expecting this correction to 6k based on 2 years of bull run. If BTC does not respect that correction because manipulators do not wish to dump, then we are indeed done with correction from the previous bull run of 3 months, and could most certainty take off from here with huge buy in from side liners.
A break upwards 14k would return BTC to its uptrend on the short term. It still runs the risk of a shoulder form at 16k and thus would only show true reversal after a convincing break thru above 16k with volume to support and remove risk of H&S. We will continue to see slow movement from here as this stalls out, and a risk of big dump from our friendly buyer.
הערה
Remember that without enough supply to sell, there is no way to force the market price further down so then patterns doesn't matter anymore even if we see a H&S as someone is willing to buy in. Patterns such as H&S only works because it "suggests" problems with the market and a fall in buying power. But if someone is willing to buy in hard, then the H&S is not invalid. Patterns play on emotions.
הערה
We are near the breakout apex now where BTC will decide to break upwards the 14k resistance line or go down. Alot have asked me whether to enter long again and again and well... here is your entry point now at the end of the consolidation. But remember your risk above here, good luck!Should the 14k resistance fail break, it will still go down hard. Risk to Reward Ratio, remember that.
הערה
Might be doing this right now to complete the ABC waves, that will get us to the peak of B and form the peak of the right shoulder. Let's see if we bounce off 14600.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/y/Yq6OjA3Z.png
הערה
Miscounted the sub waves inside C as ABC. Looks like we done the ABC, short of the 16k target by a little, going to see if we go down now. It shouldn't be floating here, that's my only concern. *Yellow impulse wave down just for reference, not real targets.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/d/DtpQanij.png
הערה
I thought one very tiny waves was missing, so that's why we were floating there. The final wave 5 hit 16k as per the extended timeline, and momentum indicators started showing strange divergence at this time suggesting that we may have hit top. There could be a slight reversal, but highly unlikely from the indicators. The accumulated BTC will now be used as supply to push the market price down as previously warned. I hope everyone got out safe, its time to play shorts and exit longs.Technical wise, bulls have done their best to save the rally and freed the trapped bulls at the top. Bears will now control the price and enjoy a return from 2 years of hibernation. The market is still unaware of the change in trend and some bulls are still battling it out but once we break 13k, volume should pick up and price will accelerate downwards towards the new bottom of 6.5k. 8.5k if we are more optimistic.
Fundamentals wise, its has not all negative so bottom may be higher. This is largely due to misunderstanding of the Segwit2x fork being re-enabled again. It was just a misdirection tactic to confuse the market and pump the price up. Segwit2x fork is not replacing bitcoin as previously intended but will basically be "hijacked" as an alt coin. Nonetheless, we can see the market reacting positively to this news so this pose an issue with the bear run.
Manipulation wise, we can see downwards pressure across all USDT market and chart analysis suggest that the market is in sync for a major correction. But we have seen some strange buying power such as one that forced a 700 BTC sell wall to pull the order at 15k. I suspect it was just wash trading, rather than two group of whales fighting it out. We will see how this play out somewhere in the 14k range.
Don't think I left anything out. Good luck and stay safe! There will be a consolidation at the bottom so if you are unsure of how to get the best price for a long, you can watch for the consolidation triangle and play the breakout. Please don't pm me trying to copy my trade.
הערה
I just noticed that the 3rd candle did not form, taking a little longer than expected. We need a long red candle down to 15k, along with a break of the support there in order for this H&S to start forming. That can act as confirmation to short.Currently the ball is still in the air as bulls and bears fight it out, do watch out for the 16k reversal break. Buying volume is really low atm so its likely just someone still looking to lift the price higher to dump. Volume here is the deciding factor still, otherwise we go sideways.
הערה
It has broke 16k with somewhat convincing volume, largely due to short squeeze. But the 16k line is now holding as a new support At this point I believe the H&S pattern is unrealistic to play out anymore. We will just see a slow upwards movement as price continues to consolidate and BTC transfers to stronger hands. It looks like a real lack of supply to push the price any lower. At this point, I would just play by the ear and take small positions, be aware of the risk above.
הפקודה בוטלה
הערה
We are going down again to test new support if 16k cannot. Bears are still controlling the price here and BTC appears to be in a struggle. The risk of the H&S still looms heavily if we cannot get back above with convincing support.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/GUQlipdL.png
הערה
The long red candle finally appeared! After such long anticipation, it looks like wave C correction may finally happen after all! I am expecting a bounce off 15400, to 15650 then down 15000 to complete the first impulse wave down.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/j/j5U8QW6l.png
הערה
The wave count didn't exactly play out as I expected but am getting a clearer picture now of what BTC was doing. The H&S is looking feasible again after the last sell off. We see now that BTC has formed a bigger bearish rising wedge instead of an upwards channel. If BTC breakout downwards, it will likely form the right shoulder with the neckline aroundSeems like the overall trend refuse to change no matter how many days go by. BTC is at risk of falling out of the wedge right now, but it looks like we have 1 more attempt to test the 16.5k resistance.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/M8di4mij.png
הערה
BTC has broken out of rising wedge, estimated bottom is 12.5k for now. Wave counts just for illustration purpose until we know more price info. Selling volume should pick up on the way down, still playing by ear for now.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/n/Nb8go2Z3.png
הערה
Looking good, I am updating the progress of this fall in my other idea. But so far, so good. This is why i kept emphasizing the need to be aware of your risk if you wanna go long here, to take small positions. The sell off is fast and deadly.I am surprised how many people kept asking me if its safe to enter long and I can only say, I don't know but I don't want to make you feel like you are missing out on gains. Long at 15k, gain 2k @ 17k, lose 9k @ 6k. Honestly, why long? Go short.
הערה
Still a waiting game, doesn't look like we will be going down for awhile based on the indicator. Here's a new plan, I checked and the sub waves for C to D plays out. Like I said before, TA always gets updated in real time. Not a crystal ball that predicts from day 1.Note that the E wave seldom touches resistance, they normally lose steam halfway to the target in a downtrend.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/x/XeOOfX2b.png
הערה
This is how the new expanded wedge looks. Just so you know, I did not just expanded the wedge on a whim. As mentioned in my other idea, a break below 14500 support is needed or us to continue downwards from here. For now, we still play by the ear, its a little strange to have BTC moving so slow given how fast it moved throughout 2017.s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/x/XeOOfX2b.png
הערה
Sorry wrong chart. I need some sleep sigh...s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/sv2YF4mz.png
הערה
Did not hit the neckline to complete the H&S today, somewhat frustrating at the lack of progress but we remain in bearish territory with unknown direction at this time. It is pretty much a scalper market for now.
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