#BTC - How to Trade The PMI
Macro
3pm (GMT) see's the release of the PMI manufacturing data.
This is basically telling us if the economy is expanding or contracting as PMI measures the planned spending of Purchasing Managers at big firms in the UK. If they are looking to spend big in the month ahead we get a reading over 50 and the economy is said to be expanding.
If they are cutting back investment then we get a reading below 50 and the economy is contracting.
The FED rely heavily on this data as it is forward looking. We're collecting data on what will happen, not what has happened.
The news here is expected to be mixed. Last time we got a bearish reading of 46.8. This time the expectation is also a bearish contraction, just not as severe with a reading of 47.5 anticipated.
A few months ago getting a low reading like this would have been bullish as the more the economy struggled the more pressure the FED came under to cut interest rates (low interest rates = higher market liquidity = bullish for BTC). Now however we have it confirmed that rates are coming down so instead we want to see readings over 50 in PMI's to show strength in the economy and allay fears of a recession.
PMI Manufacturing
Forecast 47.5 = priced in
<47.5 = Bearish
>47.5 = Bullish
Technicals
Price is respecting the fib levels from the previous high/low.
If PMI comes in over forecast then I think we break the 0.5 and head to test the 0.618. If we come in below 47.5 then I expect to test the 0.382 level.
3pm (GMT) see's the release of the PMI manufacturing data.
This is basically telling us if the economy is expanding or contracting as PMI measures the planned spending of Purchasing Managers at big firms in the UK. If they are looking to spend big in the month ahead we get a reading over 50 and the economy is said to be expanding.
If they are cutting back investment then we get a reading below 50 and the economy is contracting.
The FED rely heavily on this data as it is forward looking. We're collecting data on what will happen, not what has happened.
The news here is expected to be mixed. Last time we got a bearish reading of 46.8. This time the expectation is also a bearish contraction, just not as severe with a reading of 47.5 anticipated.
A few months ago getting a low reading like this would have been bullish as the more the economy struggled the more pressure the FED came under to cut interest rates (low interest rates = higher market liquidity = bullish for BTC). Now however we have it confirmed that rates are coming down so instead we want to see readings over 50 in PMI's to show strength in the economy and allay fears of a recession.
PMI Manufacturing
Forecast 47.5 = priced in
<47.5 = Bearish
>47.5 = Bullish
Technicals
Price is respecting the fib levels from the previous high/low.
If PMI comes in over forecast then I think we break the 0.5 and head to test the 0.618. If we come in below 47.5 then I expect to test the 0.382 level.
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