Bitcoin Establishing Wave 4 Bottom?

22 בינו׳ 2021

Many will be calling for lower prices, calling for shorts and projecting outrageous numbers like Bitcoin going to 15K! Please do not be fooled, Bitcoin is NOT in a bearish trend on the broader time frames. Trend is relevant to time frame and those who follow less than a daily time frame will call for a bearish trend. Larger time frames carry more weight and the time frame that we evaluate for our swing trade strategy is still bullish.

Let me explain:

The current price formation is a triangle or consolidation. These type of range bound situations are littered with fake outs and false starts, but the reality is a push to 27.5K is still within reason to be considered a correction of the broader trend from the 14K break to 42K high. Would you called that bearish? I hope not.

32.5K was the range support and it has been cleared, but it is not the trend support. All this means is price is likely in a minor Wave 4 of the broader 3 and needs to establish its low. Once Wave 4 bottoms, the next leg higher is likely to begin.

IF 27.5 K is taken out, then price may be in a broad Wave 4 consolidation. If this is the case, it can be range bound for months or longer and will provide some extreme opportunities for attractive investments along the way.

Our trade update:

We took a swing trade long from 37,550 and it was stopped out in this move. We also shared another buy signal in the 36's which was stopped out in the 33K area. Nothing to worry about because we manage risk effectively, and only put 1% at risk for these swing trades. Once a new buy signal appears, we will share another long idea.

Having RULES that guide perspective and decisions is KEY. The rules minimize emotional trades, reactive behavior and lots of errors. The idea is to remove as much "thinking" as possible from the idea and let the MARKET do all the work. When it comes to swing trades, there are times when the rules lead to missing a move but that is not a problem. There have been plenty of moves since the rally from 10K and there will be plenty more.

If you are taking more than 2 or 3 trades in Bitcoin per week, you are most likely not swing trading because that many HIGH quality opportunities are not that frequent on this time frame. Your account history will quickly remind you of this notion.

So in summary, we are still bullish and waiting for our next buy setup at a predetermined support. A new buy signal is likely to develop somewhere between 30K and 27.5K and we will be prepared to take it. If not, then we adjust. I do not get married to opinions, instead I let the market provide new information and I simply adjust to it.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you found it helpful.