BTC/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #17 (09/06/21)

Bitcoin fell as low as USD 31K during last night's trading session. However, this price drop should not surprise our readers because the bearish confluence outweighs the bullish, as we covered in the previous edition. 

Our result, a further sell-off to the order block around USD 30K… 

Losing the macro 0.5 fib retracement level is bearish, and a further drop to USD 31K is yet another hit to the staggered order block around this region. 

There's one glaring question weighing on the minds of many - will there be enough support for our bulls moving forward? 

Conducting a similar approach to yesterday's report, let's begin below by identifying areas of bullish and bearish confluence for the H4 BTC/USD chart. 

BTC/USD: 

H4 Bullish Confluence for BTC/USD 

Above 1W 50MA at USD 29K

Massive order block around USD 30K

Lines up with macro .618 at USD 27K

Potential Wyckoff Accumulation? 

H4 Bearish Confluence for BTC/USD 

Lost 0.5 macro fib retracement zone at USD 34K 

Below D1 50 MA and D1 200 MA

Below H4 50 MA and 200 MA

Michael Saylor risk and Trump FUDing Bitcoin

Q's conclusion: Bitcoin bulls need to be certain that this most recent bounce from USD 31K support up to USD 34K is not a bearish re-test.

There is plenty of support at the macro .618 fib down to USD 27K, which is the perfect zone to put in a proper bottom. However, a recent wave of FUD from both Trump denouncing Bitcoin, and Saylor’s incredible risk is still generating plenty of doubt and bearish sentiment in the market.

That sort of vulnerability smells delicious to the right bear. For those who might not have the appetite for crypto right now, keep a close eye on Gold. If Bitcoin breaks down further, then Gold may benefit as speculators play a more conservative card. 

XAU/USD:

See you again for the next update.

- q