Here is a quick update of my last BTC chart analysis......
In my last post, i did talk of a possibility of having a repeat of the 2013/2014 bear market price moves, and i did warn of a one or two weeks period of consolidation, as the 200 EMA indicator was beginning to flatten out.
Well thats exactly what we are seeing now, as Bitcoin's price has been held bound between $3300-$3450 in the last couple of days.
On the weekly however, i think history may just be preparing and warming up for a repeat. A hoslistic view of the 2013/2014 bear market chart in comparison with the 2018/2019 bear market chart shows a near perfect correlation/similarity in price action.
The 200 week MA seems to be flattening out right now, an indication that consolidation may continue for few more days.
All things being equal, i did expect a retest of the 200 week MA @ around $3300 area, and then a bounce up towards the downtrend line resistance at $3800, or we move straight towards the 20 week moving average around $4000-$4200 (by then) where i expect price to face rejection and then head down for capitulation.
In addittion, the descending triangle we are in right now, is a continuation of the downward move in price, so i did expect a bear break out of this descending triangle later this month.
Finally, looking at both bear market fractals on the weekly time frame, we would see similarities in price action formation. We had a double bottom and then a bounce and got rejected at the 20 week MA. IF we measure the drop from the 20 week MA, that should give us a 66'76% drop down to the bottom.
Now if we confirm we are forming the same price pattern of 2013/2014 bear market in 2019, and we use the exact drop of the last bear market which is 66.76%, the lowest drop should be $1280+.
We could have a wick down to this area, followed by a strong bounce out of this low an have a close of the candle at $1800.
Always remember, technical analysis is not an exact science, its 100% probabilistic....we may or we may not get there.....this is crypyo where anything can happen.
In my last post, i did talk of a possibility of having a repeat of the 2013/2014 bear market price moves, and i did warn of a one or two weeks period of consolidation, as the 200 EMA indicator was beginning to flatten out.
Well thats exactly what we are seeing now, as Bitcoin's price has been held bound between $3300-$3450 in the last couple of days.
On the weekly however, i think history may just be preparing and warming up for a repeat. A hoslistic view of the 2013/2014 bear market chart in comparison with the 2018/2019 bear market chart shows a near perfect correlation/similarity in price action.
The 200 week MA seems to be flattening out right now, an indication that consolidation may continue for few more days.
All things being equal, i did expect a retest of the 200 week MA @ around $3300 area, and then a bounce up towards the downtrend line resistance at $3800, or we move straight towards the 20 week moving average around $4000-$4200 (by then) where i expect price to face rejection and then head down for capitulation.
In addittion, the descending triangle we are in right now, is a continuation of the downward move in price, so i did expect a bear break out of this descending triangle later this month.
Finally, looking at both bear market fractals on the weekly time frame, we would see similarities in price action formation. We had a double bottom and then a bounce and got rejected at the 20 week MA. IF we measure the drop from the 20 week MA, that should give us a 66'76% drop down to the bottom.
Now if we confirm we are forming the same price pattern of 2013/2014 bear market in 2019, and we use the exact drop of the last bear market which is 66.76%, the lowest drop should be $1280+.
We could have a wick down to this area, followed by a strong bounce out of this low an have a close of the candle at $1800.
Always remember, technical analysis is not an exact science, its 100% probabilistic....we may or we may not get there.....this is crypyo where anything can happen.
