BTC/USD - Risk of 32k Test or Even 30k, but Bullish Trend Growin
מעודכן
Hello friends!
I usually cover ADA, but some followers suggested I look at the current BTC/USD situation.
Downward momentum is in control in many timeframes today, but the depth of consolidation appears limited. A test of 32.0k is possible, but prices may not fall much lower than 32.7k
This weekend shows signs of bullishness. 32.0k is likely to hold with support at 30.k if it does not. Prices could start rising towards 35k.
Looking at the next week to week and a half, the bottom appears to have established with upward momentum taking control. A test of 40k is possible in the next 1-2 weeks.
Intraday
Summary: Down to 32.5k if 32.7 does not hold, risk of test of 32.0k
3H - The first 3H candle started with a rally to 34k but was rejected. Prices have fallen back to the lower aqua Bollinger band at 32.8k. White EMA is still above level 50, RSI is rising, and B-bands are narrowing. This should limit price movement and likely keep prices above 32.6k early in the day.
6H - The first 6H candle of the day is currently down with indicators making a slow but steady fall. LSMA has crossed below level 50, which could allow the B-bands to expand. However, white EMA is rising, suggesting that a bottom could start to form during the day. A drop to 32.5k is possible if 32.7k does not hold.
12H - The first half of the day is down with RSI below level 50. A test of 32.0k is possible, but several factors are limiting downside. White EMA is extremely low and starting to rise, indicating exhaustion of downward momentum. Green EMA is higher than white EMA, which typically means higher lows (bullish). LSMA is close to level 50, which is translating into narrower B-bands. Most likely prices stay around the lower white B-band (32.6k) but could drop a bit lower.
1D - The daily chart is bearish with risk of lower lows tomorrow if prices continue to head lower in the day. In particular there are two indications of concern. First, the LSMA is heading down and B-bands are opening up. This could allow bigger price movements. Second, the green EMA is lower than the white EMA, both dropping sharply. Green lower than white often leads to lower lows. With the RSI flat at level 50 and LSMA not down deeply, prices are unlikely to go too far below the lower white B-band in the daily (32.6k), but falling prices today could translate to a test of 32.0k by tomorrow.
Next 3 Days
Summary: Hints of bullishness but risk of 32k test, or even 30k but unlikely below 30k
2D - In the new 2 day chart green EMA is below 50 and close to touching the RSI and LSMA. Further fall in prices during the candle, with green EMA falling further, could establish that downward momentum is taking control. Countering the fall of the green EMA are two factors. White EMA is still above level 50, which will act to pull up prices, while RSI and LSMA are rising. A test of 32.0k is possible, but a break below appears unlikely. Prices should stay between the lower aqua and white B-bands, with 33.0k being a common level. A rise in prices above 33.5k could signal a bounce to the upside.
4D - (2 days left) - Indicators are slightly bullish. RSI and green EMA are rising together. LSMA is mostly flat, but B-bands are narrowing. Finally white EMA is at level 50. This combination suggests that prices have limited downside and could be setting up for a rise in prices. A test of 32.0k is possible, but a break below is unlikely.
5D - (3 days left) - The 5D chart is an uncommon pattern. It is bullish but with a bearish LSMA that could be risky if prices start to fall. The bullish aspects are the white EMA flatting out above level 50, and the green EMA above the RSI (both rising), indicating upward momentum is in control. This may keep prices above 32k and push prices higher towards 34k. A break below 32k could bring prices down to the lower aqua B-band (30k), but a fall below is unlikely. Even 30k could be temporary within the candle.
Next 4-10 Days
Summary: Bullish indications beyond 4 days with 30.0 likely to hold, 40k possible in 2 weeks.
6D - (4 days left) Indications of a bottom forming or already in. RSI has turned upward in the previous candle and continues in the current candle. Green EMA, while oscillating, is above RSI and LSMA showing that upward momentum is in control. White EMA continues to stay above level 50. Only the LSMA is trending down, but this indicator lags the farthest behind the others. A bottom for the LSMA may not form until the next candle or the one after. Prices are likely to stay above the lower aqua B-band (31k), though a test of 30k is possible. Prices could test 35k during the candle.
9D - (7 days left) Green EMA has crossed above RSI and is close to touching the LSMA, indicating upward momentum is in control. White EMA is close to level 50. Prices are unlikely to go below the lower aqua B-band (30.1k) and should start rising towards 36k. The expanding B-bands may limit upside to under 35k in the current candle unless prices rally in lower timeframes. However, if the white EMA crosses above level 50, prices could quickly rally towards the yellow basis, testing 40k.
12D - (10 days left) Very similar to the 9D, though the LSMA has not dropped to level 50 yet. Green EMA is touching the RSI, suggesting that upward momentum is soon to come in to control. Prices could fall towards the lower white B-band (28k) but 30k should hold. White EMA is continuing to rise towards level 50. If prices rise to 35.5k during the candle, there is a chance that prices will rise towards the yellow basis in the next candle (40.6k). Doing so could establish a bottom that would allow prices to rally higher (45k and above) in 2-3 weeks.
Good luck and good fortune!
I usually cover ADA, but some followers suggested I look at the current BTC/USD situation.
Downward momentum is in control in many timeframes today, but the depth of consolidation appears limited. A test of 32.0k is possible, but prices may not fall much lower than 32.7k
This weekend shows signs of bullishness. 32.0k is likely to hold with support at 30.k if it does not. Prices could start rising towards 35k.
Looking at the next week to week and a half, the bottom appears to have established with upward momentum taking control. A test of 40k is possible in the next 1-2 weeks.
Intraday
Summary: Down to 32.5k if 32.7 does not hold, risk of test of 32.0k
3H - The first 3H candle started with a rally to 34k but was rejected. Prices have fallen back to the lower aqua Bollinger band at 32.8k. White EMA is still above level 50, RSI is rising, and B-bands are narrowing. This should limit price movement and likely keep prices above 32.6k early in the day.
6H - The first 6H candle of the day is currently down with indicators making a slow but steady fall. LSMA has crossed below level 50, which could allow the B-bands to expand. However, white EMA is rising, suggesting that a bottom could start to form during the day. A drop to 32.5k is possible if 32.7k does not hold.
12H - The first half of the day is down with RSI below level 50. A test of 32.0k is possible, but several factors are limiting downside. White EMA is extremely low and starting to rise, indicating exhaustion of downward momentum. Green EMA is higher than white EMA, which typically means higher lows (bullish). LSMA is close to level 50, which is translating into narrower B-bands. Most likely prices stay around the lower white B-band (32.6k) but could drop a bit lower.
1D - The daily chart is bearish with risk of lower lows tomorrow if prices continue to head lower in the day. In particular there are two indications of concern. First, the LSMA is heading down and B-bands are opening up. This could allow bigger price movements. Second, the green EMA is lower than the white EMA, both dropping sharply. Green lower than white often leads to lower lows. With the RSI flat at level 50 and LSMA not down deeply, prices are unlikely to go too far below the lower white B-band in the daily (32.6k), but falling prices today could translate to a test of 32.0k by tomorrow.
Next 3 Days
Summary: Hints of bullishness but risk of 32k test, or even 30k but unlikely below 30k
2D - In the new 2 day chart green EMA is below 50 and close to touching the RSI and LSMA. Further fall in prices during the candle, with green EMA falling further, could establish that downward momentum is taking control. Countering the fall of the green EMA are two factors. White EMA is still above level 50, which will act to pull up prices, while RSI and LSMA are rising. A test of 32.0k is possible, but a break below appears unlikely. Prices should stay between the lower aqua and white B-bands, with 33.0k being a common level. A rise in prices above 33.5k could signal a bounce to the upside.
4D - (2 days left) - Indicators are slightly bullish. RSI and green EMA are rising together. LSMA is mostly flat, but B-bands are narrowing. Finally white EMA is at level 50. This combination suggests that prices have limited downside and could be setting up for a rise in prices. A test of 32.0k is possible, but a break below is unlikely.
5D - (3 days left) - The 5D chart is an uncommon pattern. It is bullish but with a bearish LSMA that could be risky if prices start to fall. The bullish aspects are the white EMA flatting out above level 50, and the green EMA above the RSI (both rising), indicating upward momentum is in control. This may keep prices above 32k and push prices higher towards 34k. A break below 32k could bring prices down to the lower aqua B-band (30k), but a fall below is unlikely. Even 30k could be temporary within the candle.
Next 4-10 Days
Summary: Bullish indications beyond 4 days with 30.0 likely to hold, 40k possible in 2 weeks.
6D - (4 days left) Indications of a bottom forming or already in. RSI has turned upward in the previous candle and continues in the current candle. Green EMA, while oscillating, is above RSI and LSMA showing that upward momentum is in control. White EMA continues to stay above level 50. Only the LSMA is trending down, but this indicator lags the farthest behind the others. A bottom for the LSMA may not form until the next candle or the one after. Prices are likely to stay above the lower aqua B-band (31k), though a test of 30k is possible. Prices could test 35k during the candle.
9D - (7 days left) Green EMA has crossed above RSI and is close to touching the LSMA, indicating upward momentum is in control. White EMA is close to level 50. Prices are unlikely to go below the lower aqua B-band (30.1k) and should start rising towards 36k. The expanding B-bands may limit upside to under 35k in the current candle unless prices rally in lower timeframes. However, if the white EMA crosses above level 50, prices could quickly rally towards the yellow basis, testing 40k.
12D - (10 days left) Very similar to the 9D, though the LSMA has not dropped to level 50 yet. Green EMA is touching the RSI, suggesting that upward momentum is soon to come in to control. Prices could fall towards the lower white B-band (28k) but 30k should hold. White EMA is continuing to rise towards level 50. If prices rise to 35.5k during the candle, there is a chance that prices will rise towards the yellow basis in the next candle (40.6k). Doing so could establish a bottom that would allow prices to rally higher (45k and above) in 2-3 weeks.
Good luck and good fortune!
הערה
Mid-day Update: Today's early upward momentum quickly exhausted. ADA has been fighting to maintain support at the 1.30 level. If 1.30 does not hold, prices may fall towards 1.25, but B-bands are narrow enough that prices would need to fall below the lower aqua B-band for this to happen.Meanwhile, the 3H chart is showing signs of weakening in the downward momentum with white EMA rising and green EMA crossing above the LSMA and RSI, signals that upward momentum is taking control. If this continues, a late day rally could be possible, but at minimum it should help hold support at 1.30
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