שורט

Dont be the one crying, be the one profiting. Cycle correction

מעודכן

Bitcoin hodlers are currently under huge pain, but the pain unfortunately is not big enough to consider any kind of bottoming formation.

Current market environment is excellent for triggering capitulation cycle across BTC and correcting entire upcycle in form of classical expected C wave starting from 13000.
The "coronavirus/stock crash" disguise is being used as an explanation for huge spot coin selling. The coins are being sold in very rapid strong waves, indicating that the intention of the sellers is bringing price down back as quick as possible with least coins used. 200 WMA is acting as strong resistance on low intervals and is considered as sell entry currently

The context of 13000 rally past year is also favoring capitulative scenario coming. The large miners have hedged their holdings one year ago, during 3 months distribution between 10000 and 13000. They're ready to survive the winter for some time.
The capitulation should lead to hodlers experiencing heavy losses and miners as well (considering halving) - especially these without access to insider information.

All factors and the context are favoring market capitulation which should lead to levels sub 2000$, however as always in capitulative scenarios - we should expect more than common expectations.
The capitulation should finally complete correction of entire bitcoin upcycle which has been finalized with 20000 bubble top.

The strongest trends emerge when least market participants are expecting them, as 3000 -> 13000 rally has shown to us. There's huge probability of repeating same, just in opposite direction.
The full cycle correction has to take place at some point and now is the perfect moment.

Dont be the one crying, be the one profiting. Position yourself properly according to market trend.
Dont be the one staying emotional about your asset. Adjust.

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PS. Obviously this is 1D/3D scenario. We can chop here for a while, squeeze some shorts (perhaps even to low 6ks) - but i wouldnt expect anything spectacular.

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Updated with possible sell zone in case

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Previous idea and rejection zone worked correctly, however we dont believe this push up is over yet. We will post more details shortly.

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We're expecting market to push to at least 7.3 and 7.7 and eventually 7900.

The sentiment is way too bearish and dumb money is shorting for "easy gain".

It might require further retrace before any real continuation of the trend.

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However the push to 7ks can take some time. Monthly close is coming and we can get as low as 5.4 before.

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Managed to get almost 7.3 we spoke about days before. We're near yearly open and vwap so it might struggle here a bit

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Market still around 7.3-7.5 level.

This level can lead to minor rejection, but we're still expecting more upside from here to at least 7700+. Futures are starting to trade at premium.

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In case this breakdowns from here the target would be at least 6400.
This looks rising wedge, but worth having stop sell orders just in case.

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The correction is not necessary to go as deep as market, although 6.4 is kind of safe bet. After that we're expecting to still push to 7.7, invalidation sub last higher low (5.6)

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Regarding very small TF: The correction from drop of 7.2 to 6.6 can even lead to full retrace on extreme cases and it'd be fine for some bearish continuation. We didnt mark it on chart (just retrace to 6.8), but we think this is fully possible to kill the hope and fill the cme gap before going down.

This would lead to consternation among bears.

The irregular flat is fully possible here.

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Target hit

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So far initial hit with ~50$ precision.

Remember that 7.7 - 8.1 is broad reversal zone and we're already quite overextende on multiple big timeframes.

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So it's good moment to slowly start scaling shorts.

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Market struggling at the beginning of possible reversal zone we marked (7.7-8.1).

We might be topping here before some pullback or even entire reversal.

We can look higher only if market proves itself with strong close above 8200.

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If you're looking for little bit higher target, then perhaps these moving averages might be hit.

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This or other way, we're in bear mode until proven otherwise with mentioned strong close.

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BTC breached the mentioned possible reversal zone (7.7-8.1).

If it manages to close 1D/3D above 8200-8300, we will leave our short positions from around 7970.

We can assume then exit pump scenario which should bring us to cme gap around 9000.

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Although EW is not clear recently at all, it's hard not to see this possible corrective count with running flat as "B" and very violent "C" wave which we're seeing just now

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Estimated target was hit

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If we dont see continuation here, then we might have just witnessed exit pump and we're likely to retrace this entire swing up.

We can be creating a beautiful downtrend channel:

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Upward impulse still strong, something worth watching

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Quick flushout pulled.

As long as lower line holds, bulls have nothing to be concerned about.

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Although we suspect there's going to be at least one more flushing leg down.

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Next support zone around 7.4-7.8

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Strong 1h close. We wouldnt be surprised of full retrace here. Expect alot of crazy outcomes in pre halving season and weekend.

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If bulls doesnt reclaim block above, we're going to visit 7.4-7.6 soon.

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As we wrote above near update called "as long as 8k holds, bulls have nothing to worry about". THe next upside target should be around top boundary of mentioned chart. This applies only if we take the high decently.

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Market pretty much sideways, we're eventually expecting on 1D/3D scale to visit zone near the highs. If we take them decisevely then the upper boundary should be the target.

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Still sideways

Overall if we eventually break down from this month of sideways (perhaps after spike up first to clean shorts), the target will be likely very low considering for how long the positions were being built here. We wouldnt like to a buyer there.

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Aproaching upper resistance line which can be key reversal point..

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Still waiting for upper line...

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Price stil range bound. We're eventually expecting resolution to upside towards red box, it might just be less spectacular than people expect.

Liquidity seems to be building here.

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Finally reached upper lines where the red box was. The time factor was applied so the box is now where the lines are. Closing all trades here.

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Closing idea. Took a 2 months of waiting but a trade was completed. Patience pays off.

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'The next upside target should be around top boundary of mentioned chart"

As we said in previous updates, stick to your targets. That's the reason for closing here.

That was last update. Thanks for following.

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During this idea we adjusted from full blown bear bias to bull bias and that's how every trader should play in this range bound market. For now, neutral stance.

Thanks once again for following.

mark124

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