For a month now we have mentioned a topping around $4400 and $4600, and about two weeks ago we narrowed that down to $4553. How do you get the 4553? Well it's just a number using Fibb, but amazingly market patterns are quite predictible. Sept 17th in the article on ETH "The Path Less Chosen" (when many were bulls) we drew a line in the sand at $313. Only a breakout above this line confirmed the bull was back. Amazing we hit $313 and pulled back, and are currently testing it again. But we knew that was a critical point in the market. Did we jump in at $310? No because we understood markets repeat and if we were still in a bear market $313 would not be broken. Does buying at $310 and $316 make a difference if we go to $450 from here? NO, but I don't want to take a chance that we could still go to $240 and be in at $310. So we wait.
I have mentioned "the trend is your friend" more often then not. What I mean by this is trends and patterns seem to repeat more often then not in ALL markets. Some believe because of their emotional attachment to BTC that it's somehow different, just like some parents believe their kids can do no wrong. 5th wave corrections for most stocks, commodities, and futures happen in repeating patterns, just like animals migrating. Do they take the same path to their destination every year. No but they take a similar route. Humans are animals and are not exempt from these same instincts. You see it on the blogs. Any bull movement we will get a slew of posts, "ahhhh your wrong", "TA doesn't work", but as soon as BTC goes south, they disappear. We call this the migrating bull. To be completely fair we see this same pattern with Perma bears (they hibernate in bull runs). They are no different. What separates a Trader from the herd is we recognize these patterns, so when a stock turns bullish or bearish we are ready to act and have a strategy either way providing the highest probability of profits. Just like lions that attack a herd. They watch for the perfect time to get the most probable chance for a kill. They just don't run into the herd, they wait patiently. See Lions have a plan and know when to act, Gazelles only react. What happens in nature happens in the market. It's not bulls vs bears, it's lions vs gazelles.
I'm always looking for these migration patterns. Do you think I pulled those lines and patterns out of a hat? Do you think I put potential resistance point and breakout points on a chart because it looks good? (some of you are beyond creative with charts and I love it). These are previous points of resistance and support. Many ask, goldbug if you feel so positive that a pullback is going to happen why aren't you short? Well the same applies, $4553 has not signaled yet. I don't make a move until we get a signal AND confirmation. Shorting at $4480 is no different than those bulls that bought at $4800. And many have new identities on TV, and are posting the same rockets to the moon charts.
I look at this chart and it keeps my emotions in check. I also look at the bull theory every day. It's front and center on my pin up board and have a plan in place to trade EITHER WAY. I change both these charts constantly. Like a lioness positions herself for the highest probability of a kill, traders position themselves for the highest probability of profits. Do we always profit? Do lions always make a kill? No but we learn through experience and that increases our chances of success. Lion's know when to stop chasing!
The chart above is clear. The 5th wave correction from 2013 is exactly the same. I have already posted it several times. In the end you can buy here and $7000 is likely to happen. But I want to maximize profits, and I'll patiently wait to see how the herd takes it's path in migrating! 100% of the 5th waves we looked at had the same pattern, and yet some people do not see how it is feasible it could ever happen again. This is what Einstein calls insanity.
I have mentioned "the trend is your friend" more often then not. What I mean by this is trends and patterns seem to repeat more often then not in ALL markets. Some believe because of their emotional attachment to BTC that it's somehow different, just like some parents believe their kids can do no wrong. 5th wave corrections for most stocks, commodities, and futures happen in repeating patterns, just like animals migrating. Do they take the same path to their destination every year. No but they take a similar route. Humans are animals and are not exempt from these same instincts. You see it on the blogs. Any bull movement we will get a slew of posts, "ahhhh your wrong", "TA doesn't work", but as soon as BTC goes south, they disappear. We call this the migrating bull. To be completely fair we see this same pattern with Perma bears (they hibernate in bull runs). They are no different. What separates a Trader from the herd is we recognize these patterns, so when a stock turns bullish or bearish we are ready to act and have a strategy either way providing the highest probability of profits. Just like lions that attack a herd. They watch for the perfect time to get the most probable chance for a kill. They just don't run into the herd, they wait patiently. See Lions have a plan and know when to act, Gazelles only react. What happens in nature happens in the market. It's not bulls vs bears, it's lions vs gazelles.
I'm always looking for these migration patterns. Do you think I pulled those lines and patterns out of a hat? Do you think I put potential resistance point and breakout points on a chart because it looks good? (some of you are beyond creative with charts and I love it). These are previous points of resistance and support. Many ask, goldbug if you feel so positive that a pullback is going to happen why aren't you short? Well the same applies, $4553 has not signaled yet. I don't make a move until we get a signal AND confirmation. Shorting at $4480 is no different than those bulls that bought at $4800. And many have new identities on TV, and are posting the same rockets to the moon charts.
I look at this chart and it keeps my emotions in check. I also look at the bull theory every day. It's front and center on my pin up board and have a plan in place to trade EITHER WAY. I change both these charts constantly. Like a lioness positions herself for the highest probability of a kill, traders position themselves for the highest probability of profits. Do we always profit? Do lions always make a kill? No but we learn through experience and that increases our chances of success. Lion's know when to stop chasing!
The chart above is clear. The 5th wave correction from 2013 is exactly the same. I have already posted it several times. In the end you can buy here and $7000 is likely to happen. But I want to maximize profits, and I'll patiently wait to see how the herd takes it's path in migrating! 100% of the 5th waves we looked at had the same pattern, and yet some people do not see how it is feasible it could ever happen again. This is what Einstein calls insanity.
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In September I posted a bullish 3rd wave correction. had a target of $3000 and then to $6200 way before most others posted that. Once the correction became more clear, and I reviewed past corrections, only then did I change my chart.
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@gillianpatrice posted a great article on cycles. Great read for those interested.
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I thought this was interesting. The top 10 non BTC volume coins and their performance based on BTC. Note during BTC's increase alt coins sold off, many had runs in the past couple days, but only 1 out of 10 is positive at this point! So is it a BTC Bull or an Altcoin pullback creating demand for BTC which then will be followed by demand for USD? Just a theory to look at and keep thinking outside the box!
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We are at the turning point for sure!
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Look at the top 20 volume of altcoins on the bitcoin exchange. all but 3 are negative except XRP TRST and ADA. This is a broad market selloff not a bull market run. Look at the top 20 in market cap. Most are down. This is not a bull market it's rotation. Mid August everything was going up. This happens when new money comes in. When 50% is going up and 50% is going down this is rotation not bull. ETH ZEC just took a nose dive. OMG ETH looks like ugly coin right now!
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I'm traveling but if my phone is correct we have wiped 37 billion off in market cap in 3 weeks! Even XRP down!
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Path to $6000
