BTC : !!!!!! PIVOTAL POINT - TOO FAR, TOO QUICK?

17 בדצמ׳ 2020

so yesterday at 20k I said I expect 23,000... welp
'better than expected' for sure...
its kinda hard not to expect the market sentiment to shift in the very very near future
possibly leading to a weird short term dollar/gold up correlation
fundamentals are what should happen, and clearly, what actually happens doesn't make any sense
but in a market like never seen before- charts, a literal representation of what people do, are the only thing that can be trusted
& both the dollar and gold have been weak while BTC has done nothing but outperformed
I'm almost 100% sure before institutional funds can buy BTC, the media will flood the internet with the issue of how BTC has a fixed amount of supply, if it really wants to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency
it cannot do so unless it adds some form of inflation to it
@ the end of the day a fixed amount of BTC will lead to nothing but liquidity problems after all coins have been mined, and everyone has bid up the price..
yea yea we can argue that BTC is infinitely divisible, and that's great....
but do you really 21M BTC can be devised between, lets say, 4.5B people (about 1/2 the world population)
and be affordable for everyone?
In the long run... it's almost a certainly a 'no'
the only way to make it work is to have a constant decrease in CPI & PPI
it would provide little to no incentive for businesses to produce anything
it would also really really really incentivize holding BTC and not spending it, or more commonly known as:
HODL
and at the end of the day, an economy needs to have positive incentives
If I'm misunderstanding something please let me know..
Basically I'm just here to say
in my opinion coins like ETH, ADA, XRP and a few others provide more intrinsic value relative to price
and if BTC got this high... alt coins, if they really do provide value in the long run, have some very very very nice A-symmetry to them

I get the love for blockchain/crypto, it's undoubtedly going to play a huge role in the future
regardless,
I'm reallocating capital today (:
... & again, not getting short
BTC scares me
..... but if I was.......

I'd wait till DXY was at 88.5
:D

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GL!