Good morning traders. Price continues to move as expected, notching a new 2019 high at $6099 on Bitstamp last night. I am zooming out to the 1D chart today to give my thoughts. I don't really have much to add to what I've been saying for the past 4 months, but I would like to reiterate what I'm thinking.
Not too long ago I discussed this parabolic "pop" as a growing possibility (dotted purple curve). I have added in wave counts to let you know what I'm looking at from this larger TF. As you can see, I do believe we are in the fifth subwave of wave 3. However, where it ends remains a question. My belief, at this time, is that we will see it end between $6800 and the daily R3 pivot at $7475. Which level depends on how hard this next push is (should be subwave 3 of subwave 5 of wave 3). As always, I'll outline my thoughts with fibs, etc. during this morning's video update.
Everybody else thought that price would get rejected hard at $6000 yet we see price consolidating on top of it, much like what we saw at $5600. This suggests another good push up which aligns with my thoughts. A parabolic move like we are seeing should result in a blow-off top at the end of wave 5. My current wave 5 target (blue line) is based on the wave 3 target shown and happens to be the weekly pivot. However, if wave 3 targets the R3 pivot instead, then the wave 5 target becomes the red line around $10,000. Retail traders continue to remain in disbelief at this year's rally and are ignoring the accumulation that occurred as well as the FOMO that will continue to flood in as price rises above $6000, making these targets more and more likely. However, this does not guarantee that we will reach them. At this point, there are many variables which makes it hard to pinpoint a really likely scenario. So, risk management remains the name of the game, folks.
A breakdown from the recent high would likely see price retracing toward the $4350-$5000 level. That is the 61.8%-78.6% extension area. We would have to see how price moves at the beginning of that breakdown to figure out which is the most likely retracement target. My initial soft target for wave 3 remains the $6300-$6500 level, with an increasing likelihood that we will see it tap that $6800 level. But I will be watching price action and volume because the more this plays out as it has been, the more likely those higher targets of ~$6800 and ~$7400 are becoming. Looking at the pivots and price action, we would normally expect price to blow off around the R5 pivot as it is, which only gives more credence toward those higher wave 5 targets. If wave 5 targets $8000, then we would expect a retracement toward $4900-$5600 which is the sideways movement during April. If wave 5 targets $10,000 then we would expect a retracement toward $5800-$6600. In either case, the expected larger wave 2 retracement would find support at key levels before beginning the larger wave 3.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Not too long ago I discussed this parabolic "pop" as a growing possibility (dotted purple curve). I have added in wave counts to let you know what I'm looking at from this larger TF. As you can see, I do believe we are in the fifth subwave of wave 3. However, where it ends remains a question. My belief, at this time, is that we will see it end between $6800 and the daily R3 pivot at $7475. Which level depends on how hard this next push is (should be subwave 3 of subwave 5 of wave 3). As always, I'll outline my thoughts with fibs, etc. during this morning's video update.
Everybody else thought that price would get rejected hard at $6000 yet we see price consolidating on top of it, much like what we saw at $5600. This suggests another good push up which aligns with my thoughts. A parabolic move like we are seeing should result in a blow-off top at the end of wave 5. My current wave 5 target (blue line) is based on the wave 3 target shown and happens to be the weekly pivot. However, if wave 3 targets the R3 pivot instead, then the wave 5 target becomes the red line around $10,000. Retail traders continue to remain in disbelief at this year's rally and are ignoring the accumulation that occurred as well as the FOMO that will continue to flood in as price rises above $6000, making these targets more and more likely. However, this does not guarantee that we will reach them. At this point, there are many variables which makes it hard to pinpoint a really likely scenario. So, risk management remains the name of the game, folks.
A breakdown from the recent high would likely see price retracing toward the $4350-$5000 level. That is the 61.8%-78.6% extension area. We would have to see how price moves at the beginning of that breakdown to figure out which is the most likely retracement target. My initial soft target for wave 3 remains the $6300-$6500 level, with an increasing likelihood that we will see it tap that $6800 level. But I will be watching price action and volume because the more this plays out as it has been, the more likely those higher targets of ~$6800 and ~$7400 are becoming. Looking at the pivots and price action, we would normally expect price to blow off around the R5 pivot as it is, which only gives more credence toward those higher wave 5 targets. If wave 5 targets $8000, then we would expect a retracement toward $4900-$5600 which is the sideways movement during April. If wave 5 targets $10,000 then we would expect a retracement toward $5800-$6600. In either case, the expected larger wave 2 retracement would find support at key levels before beginning the larger wave 3.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
