Bitcoin: Double Top Or Buying Op?

2 בנוב׳

Bitcoin missed all time high by 200 points. Are you long from the RISKIEST price location since March? If you observe this price action from a larger time frame (weekly), you should recognize the failed high which is a variation of the classic double top formation. If you got long betting on the break out (on this time frame) and a red candle develops the next day or so (see arrow), that is usually a good reason to exit in order to avoid the 6K to 8K associated risk. Rather than getting stuck in a painful position, it is far more effective to gauge the probability and RISK in advance and adjust to it. Let me explain.

There is no question, Bitcoin is generally strong, but that does NOT guarantee a break out will follow through. Betting on break outs is a viable strategy, you just have to know how to manage the position if it fails. The main idea here is you MUST accept the fact that there is NO WAY To know if the break will fail or succeed in advance. All you can do is ask: if it fails, how much risk am I taking? And your answer will depend on the time frame you are operating within. The larger the time frame, the greater the risk. In the case of the daily chart, the next support is the 68K to 66K area (old resistance/ new support).

Also when taking such a trade, you should be acting on specific entry criteria (some kind of pattern) that provides some level of objectivity to your decision making process. IF you got long as a reaction to a price spike. or worse, as a result of consuming mainstream news, you will find out the hard way that acting on low quality information makes you a profit opportunity for someone else. For optimal results (and to profit from those who react to noise) you MUST have a clear decision making process that defines profit objectives/risk the same way for EVERY trade or investment you make (Trade Scanner Pro).

So what about buying this pullback? That is sensible BUT I have yet to see a buy signal. The location is attractive (see illustration), but without a signal there is no way to measure risk. The other important point is to have a realistic profit objective in terms of PROBABILITY OF PROFIT. While a "higher high" is likely in a bullish trend (74K+?), you have a greater chance of exiting green at a lower price (test of 71.5K). This decision depends on your degree of confidence and willingness to embrace risk. While price is favored to make the higher high, there is NO guarantee. Accept the fact that there is NO WAY to know for sure. You place a bet and hope it works out. And if not, you have a plan in place to control the risk. That is the trader mentality in a nutshell.

If you look at my previous articles, my forecasts (illustrations) have been wrong. I have been anticipating a retrace to a support, but Bitcoin does not agree. It is important for you to understand that at highs I will usually look for a pullback and at lows I will look for a bounce. While this does not work 100% of the time, it has helped me effectively navigate this range bound market that Bitcoin has been gyrating within since March and has yet to break out of.
Unlike many "gurus" I do not pretend to be able to forecast the future, I simply play the probabilities, just like going all in on pocket aces before the flop. It doesn't ALWAYS work, but probability favors a positive outcome because that is the strongest hand you can start with.

The more time you factor into an idea, the less of a chance you have of being accurate. This is because markets are HIGHLY random. Price has retraced off the high and that is ideal for a swing trade long (which can be good for a few days/week). Its just a matter of confirmation at this point. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.