Comprehensive Bitcoin price action for the next 3-4 months!!
מעודכן
So, I think I've covered everything here. Critical piece is that it looks like the PA going on now is a classic falling wedge, which, while bullish, does not guarantee a bullish breakout.
I think the most likely scenario is we will go sideways until about late November, and then likely break decisively below the 7.7K support - reason being the top of the wedge combined with the 200 daily SMA will provide ample downwards trending resistance.
After that, the march downwards will likely quicken a bit and we'll soon find ourselves bouncing off of our good old friend, the 6.2K support zone, and finally, around January of 2020, we will have our breakout.
At that point, it's anyone's guess - again, if I had to bet, it would be a bullish breakout with the conservatively drawn target of the falling wedge being around 10.6K. But - Bitcoin being Bitcoin, we could either have our bullish breakout earlier, or the target could be much higher.
The alternative? Goblintown, as they say. BTC would do something unprecedented, we would be in uncharted, bearish waters, and that methhead troll Mr. Renev could go ahead and have a party and dance on traders' and investors' graves.
I think the most likely scenario is we will go sideways until about late November, and then likely break decisively below the 7.7K support - reason being the top of the wedge combined with the 200 daily SMA will provide ample downwards trending resistance.
After that, the march downwards will likely quicken a bit and we'll soon find ourselves bouncing off of our good old friend, the 6.2K support zone, and finally, around January of 2020, we will have our breakout.
At that point, it's anyone's guess - again, if I had to bet, it would be a bullish breakout with the conservatively drawn target of the falling wedge being around 10.6K. But - Bitcoin being Bitcoin, we could either have our bullish breakout earlier, or the target could be much higher.
The alternative? Goblintown, as they say. BTC would do something unprecedented, we would be in uncharted, bearish waters, and that methhead troll Mr. Renev could go ahead and have a party and dance on traders' and investors' graves.
הערה
Currently struggling to stay above the 200 SMA. I would wait for a daily (or at least 4 hourly) close above it before longing. Also worth noting that even if we do close above it, 9.5K will be strong resistance - there's the top of the wedge as well as support-turned-resistance (which I've drawn).
הערה
Just to bring in EW perspective (not my forte): 
So, even if we get above the 200 SMA with volume there's a strong argument to be made for one final leg down before we have a chance of breaking back up and possibly out of this wedge.
הערה
Nothing new here. Bounced off 7.7K support (for the fifth? sixth time now?). We could go up as high as 8.8K to test the 200MA again, and 9K to test the top of the descending wedge.
If we break both of those I'll feel bullish again. Otherwise this idea of mine is still very much active.
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