The Bear Market Ends on November 19, 2018 at $5457.00...Maybe
This is a log chart,
I have used the 2013-2015 crash as a template for what might happen during this crash. First, I drew a horizontal line from the lowest point in the 2013-15 bear market which occurred at $162.00 on August 8, 2015 (minus the flash crash). This is from a high of $1167.30 that occurred on December 4, 2013. If we backtrack a bit more, we can see that bitcoin had support from a previous mini-crash that had occurred in October which ranged just below $162 and dipped to $155.8. From this, we can see that bitcoin had lost roughly 720% of its value in 623 days.
Granted, It only dipped to $162 for one day and ranged a bit higher for the better part of 2015 at around $215, but for our purposes, we will use the lowest and highest prices of this crash. The reason we are not using the flash crash from February 9, 2014, is because that low was not violated again.
Well, it just so happens that there was a similar dip on October 24, 2017. A dip that created a support that was respected during a larger dip that occurred in November 2017 The price during this dip, at it's lowest, was $5457.4.
If this dip is respected, as well as the not yet disrespected diagonal uptrend line, then we are looking at a bottom of $5457, that can occur no later than November 9th of this year before resuming the uptrend.
If Bitcoin does break the diagonal uptrend line as well as support at 5457, then I would consider a long-term bear market in play. If BTC moves below these levels and repeats the 2013-15 bear market, then 663 days from our top in December would put bitcoin bottoming out on September 1, 2019. If the percentages stay the same, we are looking at $2762 bitcoin on, or around September 2019.
I have used the 2013-2015 crash as a template for what might happen during this crash. First, I drew a horizontal line from the lowest point in the 2013-15 bear market which occurred at $162.00 on August 8, 2015 (minus the flash crash). This is from a high of $1167.30 that occurred on December 4, 2013. If we backtrack a bit more, we can see that bitcoin had support from a previous mini-crash that had occurred in October which ranged just below $162 and dipped to $155.8. From this, we can see that bitcoin had lost roughly 720% of its value in 623 days.
Granted, It only dipped to $162 for one day and ranged a bit higher for the better part of 2015 at around $215, but for our purposes, we will use the lowest and highest prices of this crash. The reason we are not using the flash crash from February 9, 2014, is because that low was not violated again.
Well, it just so happens that there was a similar dip on October 24, 2017. A dip that created a support that was respected during a larger dip that occurred in November 2017 The price during this dip, at it's lowest, was $5457.4.
If this dip is respected, as well as the not yet disrespected diagonal uptrend line, then we are looking at a bottom of $5457, that can occur no later than November 9th of this year before resuming the uptrend.
If Bitcoin does break the diagonal uptrend line as well as support at 5457, then I would consider a long-term bear market in play. If BTC moves below these levels and repeats the 2013-15 bear market, then 663 days from our top in December would put bitcoin bottoming out on September 1, 2019. If the percentages stay the same, we are looking at $2762 bitcoin on, or around September 2019.
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