New Bitcoin Buy Signal In Play. Look Out Bears.

26 בינו׳ 2020

#Bitcoin new buy signal has triggered upon the development and break of the previous inside bar high. Yet, many still argue that Bitcoin is a short. In this video I point out why I believe Bitcoin is going to low the 9Ks on the next leg, and what common mistake blinds the majority of participants to such a move. The goal here is to provide perspective, and insight into how our decision process is managed for our LONG only swing trade strategy. I aim to provide real value to the community, not persuade you to agree with my view, nor should this be taken as advice.

I am providing the main points of my video here so that you do not have to watch the whole thing.

Note to those who like to criticize: Disagreement is perfectly acceptable, BUT if you can't SHARE your reasoning in a way that provides educational value to the community, then please refrain. You only degrade the experience of this platform which should not be tolerated by those who are making a genuine effort to learn.

1. 8130 support has held and price structure has established a HIGHER LOW. This structure is a sign of strength since higher lows often lead to higher highs. Those who continue to focus on the series of "lower highs" that Bitcoin has established since June are NOT taking into consideration the WEIGHT of the most recent price structure.

2. Sell signals (like the outside bar the appeared about a week ago) do not guarantee there will be bearish follow through. These signals can offer attractive opportunities for very short term oriented styles such as day trading, but any expectations beyond that magnitude and you are BLIND to the clear signs of strength that are now present. In this environment, sell signals as defined by our swing trade strategy carry little weight.

3. In terms of proportionate order flow, the next target area for price is in the low to mid 9Ks. There is a resistance around the 9K area which price has reacted to previously, but short squeeze momentum can lead price through this level (which will take us out at our 3rd profit target at 9250) and into the next zone which borders the low 10K region. This means reward/risk is still attractive for long swing trades taken around the 8500 area.

To be clear, my perspective and analysis is based on the swing trade strategy that we operate. Everyone has their own definitions of what trading means, and in order to compare ideas, it is important to recognize the specific time frame, and magnitude of the inflection points that we are evaluating. So questions about price action on one hour charts are not relevant in this regard.

Overall, the inverted head and shoulders, followed by the recent higher low are clear signs of a momentum reversal within a corrective consolidation (defined by 14K high to 6450 low). This is NOT a bearish trend as I have been pointing out for MONTHS. And if the recent momentum continues for a break of 10,300, THEN we can argue that a broader Wave 3 is in play. And upon confirmation, that will prompt us to change our trend expectations from corrective consolidation to bullish. For our strategy, trend and momentum are not the same thing.