Before We All Get Too Excited...
We’ve had a good pump but everyone is getting VERY prematurely bullish (!!).
Let’s put things into perspective…
We have NOT YET created a higher high on the weekly—the primary criteria for establishing a bullish reversal.
Also, look at the similarity to where we were just before the November 2018 capitulation as far as the weekly moving averages: we have found support on the 89 EMA (aqua) and but the 10 SMA (red), 21 EMA (yellow), and 50 EMA (green) are immediately above, coming together, and sloping downward—the same posture they were all in (esp. in relation to the 89 EMA) just before the 2018 capitulation. The November 2018 capitulation started when the red 10 SMA crossed over the 89 EMA and right now the 10 SMA is headed in that direction.
Could I be wrong?
Absolutely.
Bitcoin can ALWAYS go in either direction and there will always, in retrospect, be a technical analysis-backed rationalization or the move. It’s always a 50-50 situation as far at Bitcoin’s next move.
If we go up and form a higher high on the weekly by breaking the 7900 area, then come down and find support on one of those moving averages (21 EMA, 50 EMA or 10 SMA), I’ll definitely be bullish.
Problem is, just to form a higher high on the weekly we would need to break up through that cluster of moving averages, which is going to be difficult.
Not saying it’s impossible, though, and I hope I’m wrong.
Cheers and happy trading!
Let’s put things into perspective…
We have NOT YET created a higher high on the weekly—the primary criteria for establishing a bullish reversal.
Also, look at the similarity to where we were just before the November 2018 capitulation as far as the weekly moving averages: we have found support on the 89 EMA (aqua) and but the 10 SMA (red), 21 EMA (yellow), and 50 EMA (green) are immediately above, coming together, and sloping downward—the same posture they were all in (esp. in relation to the 89 EMA) just before the 2018 capitulation. The November 2018 capitulation started when the red 10 SMA crossed over the 89 EMA and right now the 10 SMA is headed in that direction.
Could I be wrong?
Absolutely.
Bitcoin can ALWAYS go in either direction and there will always, in retrospect, be a technical analysis-backed rationalization or the move. It’s always a 50-50 situation as far at Bitcoin’s next move.
If we go up and form a higher high on the weekly by breaking the 7900 area, then come down and find support on one of those moving averages (21 EMA, 50 EMA or 10 SMA), I’ll definitely be bullish.
Problem is, just to form a higher high on the weekly we would need to break up through that cluster of moving averages, which is going to be difficult.
Not saying it’s impossible, though, and I hope I’m wrong.
Cheers and happy trading!
כתב ויתור
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