Is This the Calm Before the Storm?

The BTC/USD market is at a critical juncture on the H4 chart, and traders are closely monitoring for clues about the next big move. Let's dive into the price action with a detailed breakdown of the current structure, arguments for bulls and bears, and some key educational insights to help you sharpen your trading skills.


Current Market Structure: Sideways With Bearish Tilt

The chart reveals a complex mix of trends and trading ranges. After forming a Higher High (HH) at $108,000 in early December, BTC entered a steep correction, creating a new Lower Low (LL) near $92,000. Since then, we’ve seen:

1. Lower Highs (LH) at $104,000 and $102,000, signaling bearish dominance.
2. A recent Higher Low (HL) near $94,000, hinting at potential range-bound behavior.
3. Price is now compressing around the 20-period EMA, a classic sign of indecision.

Overall, the market is in a broad trading range** ($92,000 - $108,000), but with a slight bearish bias due to the sequence of Lower Highs and weakening bullish momentum.


Bulls’ Case: Building a Base for Reversal?

1. Strong Support Around $92,000:
- The current Higher Low (HL) at $94,000 and prior tests of $92,000 suggest buyers are defending this zone aggressively.
- Probability: 40%

2. Early Signs of Trend Change:
- The market is attempting to hold above the 20 EMA, a key short-term dynamic support.
- If BTC breaks above $96,500, it could challenge the Lower High (LH) at $102,000, paving the way for a bull trend.

3. Final Flag Pattern Potential:
- Bears may have exhausted themselves during the last strong leg down. A breakout above $96,500 could be the start of a bull leg within the range.

-

Bears’ Case: Continuation Lower?

1. Weak Rallies & Bear Trend Intact:
- Every attempt to push higher since the $108,000 peak has resulted in lower highs, signaling strong bearish pressure.
- The recent price action near the 20 EMA looks like a weak bull flag, ripe for a downside breakout.
- Probability: 60%

2. False Breakouts Above $96,500:
- Recent minor tops near $96,000 show rejection wicks, a sign of bears selling into strength.

3. Targeting the Trading Range Low:
- If $94,000 breaks, BTC is likely to revisit $92,000 or even make a new **Lower Low (LL)** below $90,000.


1. Lower Highs and Lower Lows:
- These are the hallmarks of a bearish trend. Until the bulls can create a Higher High (HH) above $102,000, the bears remain in control.

2. Trading Ranges Are Traps:
- In trading ranges, both bulls and bears experience false breakouts. Be cautious about overcommitting near extremes.

3. Final Flags:
- A final flag occurs when the trend seems to weaken but surprises traders with a breakout. Watch for confirmation above $96,500 or below $92,000.


What Do YOU Think?

This is a classic tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Will BTC break higher and revisit $108,000, or are we headed for another leg down below $92,000? Share your analysis, charts, and predictions in the comments!


כתב ויתור

המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.