Bitcoin: A Consolidation Before the Next Move? Complete Analysis
In this post, I will present:
1. A cross-analysis of my customized technical indicators (ISPD Div Pro, MTFTI, OI LIQMAP, HPI, BB/RSI_DIV, Koncorde Divergence [H32], Auto AVWAP, Mason’s Line).
2. A perspective on the current market, identifying critical zones and possible scenarios for Bitcoin.
The goal is to provide a comprehensive overview of the technical situation and the dynamics influencing price movements.
1) Detailed Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
1.1 Major Support and Resistance Zones
• Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of 93k to 97k USDT, a zone that limits price movement and reflects a market contraction period.
• The Auto AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) highlights two major levels:
• HiAVWAP around 99k–102k USDT, acting as a dynamic resistance.
• LoAVWAP near 95k–97k USDT, serving as a key support.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H, 8H, and 1D suggests a probable increase in volatility. A breakout above 100k–102k would signal a strong bullish continuation, while a drop below 95k, then 92.5k, could lead to a deeper retracement.
1.2 Trends and Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
• The MTFTI (Multi-TimeFrame Trend Indicator) reveals a hesitant market:
• The 1D and 1W timeframes remain bullish.
• The 2H, 4H, and sometimes 6H turn red, indicating short-term weakness.
• This divergence suggests a lateral consolidation where the overall trend is bullish, but immediate momentum is slowing, preventing a clear breakout.
1.3 Complementary Indicators
ISPD Div Pro
• Analyzes the gap between normalized price and investor sentiment.
• Across most timeframes, the value ranges between 0.3 and 0.7, indicating that the market is neither in euphoria nor extreme panic.
• In the short term (2H/4H), Investor Satisfaction can be low (<0.3), which often signals potential accumulation if confirmed by other indicators.
Mason’s Line
• Normalizes investor satisfaction.
• A score close to 0 signals an interesting entry point, while a score near 1 indicates overheating.
• On 2H/4H, Satisfaction is high (0.7–0.75) → potential overbought conditions.
• On Daily (1D), it fluctuates between 0.5 and 0.6, which remains moderate and supports a continued bullish trend.
HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• Measures buying/selling pressure based on capital flows.
• HPI ≈ 60–80 on 2H/4H: high level, indicating strong demand but possible exhaustion.
• HPI ≈ 44 on 1D: balanced, showing that the market remains in consolidation without excess.
BB/RSI_DIV (RSI Bollinger & Divergence)
• 2H and 4H → RSI is very high (70–90): Potential overbought condition.
• 12H and 1D → RSI around 55–60: Neutral to bullish zone.
• Intraday overbought conditions may lead to a short-term correction before the trend continues.
Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• “Azul” (strong hands) > “Verde” (retail) across multiple timeframes → sign of continued institutional support.
• However, when “Verde” turns negative, it indicates weakening bullish momentum and a risk of consolidation.
OI LIQMAP
• Identifies liquidation levels in derivative markets.
• Two critical zones:
• 95k–96k USDT: Support zone that has already pushed the price up.
• 100k–102k USDT: Strong resistance zone with many sell orders.
2) Global Market and Liquidity
• Declining speculative enthusiasm in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
• The contraction of Open Interest (OI) in derivatives indicates reduced leverage. This type of decline sometimes precedes prolonged consolidations or even corrections.
• Funding rates are decreasing, especially for high-risk assets like Solana and Memecoins, signaling fading bullish momentum in these segments.
3) Which Timeframe to Prioritize for Positioning?
• The best timeframes to monitor a decisive move are 4H and 8H.
• 2H → Too volatile, already overbought.
• 1D → Too slow to detect real-time breakouts.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H/8H/1D suggests that a strong move is imminent, but the direction remains uncertain.
4) Strategy and Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
➡️ Bullish confirmation if closing above 100–102k USDT with volume.
➡️ This would open the door to a test of 105–110k USDT.
➡️ In this case, BTC would confirm its exit from consolidation and re-enter price discovery mode.
Scenario 2: Correction Before Rebound
➡️ A rejection below 100k–102k followed by a return to 95–96k.
➡️ This zone remains a key support and could trigger a rebound if accumulation signs appear.
➡️ A drop below 92.5k would open the door to 89–90k USDT, a critical level corresponding to a major institutional entry threshold.
Scenario 3: Deeper Pullback
➡️ Losing 92.5k USDT = bearish acceleration toward 89–90k.
➡️ This level is the last defense before a risk of a deeper correction.
➡️ Below this level, the market could seek even lower supports in the long term.
5) Practical Recommendations
✅ Monitor breakout signals on 4H/8H.
✅ Avoid FOMO around 100k–102k without volume confirmation.
✅ If correction occurs, potential buy zone around 89–90k (major support).
✅ Avoid strong exposure to altcoins until Bitcoin confirms its direction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal moment, fluctuating between 95k and 100k USDT.
Technical indicators and liquidity flows show a slowdown, but the underlying trend remains bullish.
The key levels to watch are 95k–96k (support) and 100k–102k (resistance).
A bullish breakout would confirm a move toward 105–110k, while a break below 92.5k could lead to 89k.
In any case, volatility ahead will be strong. Be prepared!
1. A cross-analysis of my customized technical indicators (ISPD Div Pro, MTFTI, OI LIQMAP, HPI, BB/RSI_DIV, Koncorde Divergence [H32], Auto AVWAP, Mason’s Line).
2. A perspective on the current market, identifying critical zones and possible scenarios for Bitcoin.
The goal is to provide a comprehensive overview of the technical situation and the dynamics influencing price movements.
1) Detailed Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
1.1 Major Support and Resistance Zones
• Bitcoin is currently trading within a range of 93k to 97k USDT, a zone that limits price movement and reflects a market contraction period.
• The Auto AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) highlights two major levels:
• HiAVWAP around 99k–102k USDT, acting as a dynamic resistance.
• LoAVWAP near 95k–97k USDT, serving as a key support.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H, 8H, and 1D suggests a probable increase in volatility. A breakout above 100k–102k would signal a strong bullish continuation, while a drop below 95k, then 92.5k, could lead to a deeper retracement.
1.2 Trends and Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
• The MTFTI (Multi-TimeFrame Trend Indicator) reveals a hesitant market:
• The 1D and 1W timeframes remain bullish.
• The 2H, 4H, and sometimes 6H turn red, indicating short-term weakness.
• This divergence suggests a lateral consolidation where the overall trend is bullish, but immediate momentum is slowing, preventing a clear breakout.
1.3 Complementary Indicators
ISPD Div Pro
• Analyzes the gap between normalized price and investor sentiment.
• Across most timeframes, the value ranges between 0.3 and 0.7, indicating that the market is neither in euphoria nor extreme panic.
• In the short term (2H/4H), Investor Satisfaction can be low (<0.3), which often signals potential accumulation if confirmed by other indicators.
Mason’s Line
• Normalizes investor satisfaction.
• A score close to 0 signals an interesting entry point, while a score near 1 indicates overheating.
• On 2H/4H, Satisfaction is high (0.7–0.75) → potential overbought conditions.
• On Daily (1D), it fluctuates between 0.5 and 0.6, which remains moderate and supports a continued bullish trend.
HPI (Hybrid Pressure Index)
• Measures buying/selling pressure based on capital flows.
• HPI ≈ 60–80 on 2H/4H: high level, indicating strong demand but possible exhaustion.
• HPI ≈ 44 on 1D: balanced, showing that the market remains in consolidation without excess.
BB/RSI_DIV (RSI Bollinger & Divergence)
• 2H and 4H → RSI is very high (70–90): Potential overbought condition.
• 12H and 1D → RSI around 55–60: Neutral to bullish zone.
• Intraday overbought conditions may lead to a short-term correction before the trend continues.
Koncorde Divergence [H32]
• “Azul” (strong hands) > “Verde” (retail) across multiple timeframes → sign of continued institutional support.
• However, when “Verde” turns negative, it indicates weakening bullish momentum and a risk of consolidation.
OI LIQMAP
• Identifies liquidation levels in derivative markets.
• Two critical zones:
• 95k–96k USDT: Support zone that has already pushed the price up.
• 100k–102k USDT: Strong resistance zone with many sell orders.
2) Global Market and Liquidity
• Declining speculative enthusiasm in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
• The contraction of Open Interest (OI) in derivatives indicates reduced leverage. This type of decline sometimes precedes prolonged consolidations or even corrections.
• Funding rates are decreasing, especially for high-risk assets like Solana and Memecoins, signaling fading bullish momentum in these segments.
3) Which Timeframe to Prioritize for Positioning?
• The best timeframes to monitor a decisive move are 4H and 8H.
• 2H → Too volatile, already overbought.
• 1D → Too slow to detect real-time breakouts.
• The compression of Bollinger Bands on 4H/8H/1D suggests that a strong move is imminent, but the direction remains uncertain.
4) Strategy and Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
➡️ Bullish confirmation if closing above 100–102k USDT with volume.
➡️ This would open the door to a test of 105–110k USDT.
➡️ In this case, BTC would confirm its exit from consolidation and re-enter price discovery mode.
Scenario 2: Correction Before Rebound
➡️ A rejection below 100k–102k followed by a return to 95–96k.
➡️ This zone remains a key support and could trigger a rebound if accumulation signs appear.
➡️ A drop below 92.5k would open the door to 89–90k USDT, a critical level corresponding to a major institutional entry threshold.
Scenario 3: Deeper Pullback
➡️ Losing 92.5k USDT = bearish acceleration toward 89–90k.
➡️ This level is the last defense before a risk of a deeper correction.
➡️ Below this level, the market could seek even lower supports in the long term.
5) Practical Recommendations
✅ Monitor breakout signals on 4H/8H.
✅ Avoid FOMO around 100k–102k without volume confirmation.
✅ If correction occurs, potential buy zone around 89–90k (major support).
✅ Avoid strong exposure to altcoins until Bitcoin confirms its direction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal moment, fluctuating between 95k and 100k USDT.
Technical indicators and liquidity flows show a slowdown, but the underlying trend remains bullish.
The key levels to watch are 95k–96k (support) and 100k–102k (resistance).
A bullish breakout would confirm a move toward 105–110k, while a break below 92.5k could lead to 89k.
In any case, volatility ahead will be strong. Be prepared!
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.