BITCOIN - The Path Become More Clear But There is a Trump Card!
Fundamentally the mining community is planning a fork by the end of October, but it appears they still have some issues to work out. Though I have read about these issues I am not as tech savy as many of you, but I know I want to be in before the split. I think? I will rely on many of you that have more knowledge to share your thoughts. Why do I mention this?
From a TA perspective a fundamental change can alter the TA outlook even though the overall path from September has played out as EW and Fibb predicted. I am not a die hard EW guy and believe major fundamental changes can have an effect on market sentiment. We will have to monitor closely as we approach the fork and adjust accordingly. We have the tools to maneuver through this challenges using trend analysis, and ice in our finger tips that we will make reasoned decisions and not emotional. It's critical we manage our money wisely, reviewing levels where we may get a trend change, and most importantly cutting losses quick!
In my opinion we have completed the second cycle of a 333 longer term correction. I have labeled the corrections cycles for both the current and the 2013 cycle. This is always open to interpretation so keep this in mind. The time correlation is undeniable. Trends and patterns seem to repeat often in markets. Failure to recognize or being stubborn to think they do not happen is ignorance. Will it happen the same way? Only the market knows, but from a probability standpoint it's better than a coin flip and so far so good.
Our ultimate target is in the $2200 range for this final leg. I will start accumulating before this watching closely the $3500ish level. I am firmly aware that there are other probable paths. I have outlined two other probable paths. The one in red negates the overall WXY correction sequence and takes us to the $6000ish level where we will have to assess if the long term correction happens there or not. The lighter blue path is another path which is similar to the previous ABCDE correction wedge posted earlier this week. A very good analyst I follow and much respect has this as his path. Around the $3500-$3800 level is where we will look to see which path plays out. The $3800 level could complete wave II if we have entered the bull stage at this point. If we head up from there then we have to pay attention to the $4550 level as this would follow the 2nd correction scenario in light blue and will determine a continuation or completion of the "X" wave. A breakout above $4650 provides a level where the correction becomes much less a probability and it is more probable we head to $6000 from there. Below $3400 would negate the bull path as wave II would pullback to the start of wave I, and we can set our sights on $2200-$2800.
Keep in mind there are thousands of different outcomes possible. The arrows are direction indicators so expect bull/bear movements along the way regardless of the outcome. Over the years I have come to rely on EW and Fibb to provide the paths with the highest probable outcomes. I also like to know how other traders are viewing the market and many will be trading similar charts. Keep in mind everyone from large institutions to GS uses the same techniques and charts. So we may not hit the levels to a nickle, as buying could pick up in anticipation of the level and then FOMO takes over.
In closing: If you feel the need to tell me how I should write to fit your feelings and your needs, then you need to get out of the entitled mode you are in, go down to Kohls and buy some big boy pants. I write how I want to, and not how you want me to. You want buy sell stop points because you do not know how to trade. There are others you should follow.
Thanks and God Bless.
From a TA perspective a fundamental change can alter the TA outlook even though the overall path from September has played out as EW and Fibb predicted. I am not a die hard EW guy and believe major fundamental changes can have an effect on market sentiment. We will have to monitor closely as we approach the fork and adjust accordingly. We have the tools to maneuver through this challenges using trend analysis, and ice in our finger tips that we will make reasoned decisions and not emotional. It's critical we manage our money wisely, reviewing levels where we may get a trend change, and most importantly cutting losses quick!
In my opinion we have completed the second cycle of a 333 longer term correction. I have labeled the corrections cycles for both the current and the 2013 cycle. This is always open to interpretation so keep this in mind. The time correlation is undeniable. Trends and patterns seem to repeat often in markets. Failure to recognize or being stubborn to think they do not happen is ignorance. Will it happen the same way? Only the market knows, but from a probability standpoint it's better than a coin flip and so far so good.
Our ultimate target is in the $2200 range for this final leg. I will start accumulating before this watching closely the $3500ish level. I am firmly aware that there are other probable paths. I have outlined two other probable paths. The one in red negates the overall WXY correction sequence and takes us to the $6000ish level where we will have to assess if the long term correction happens there or not. The lighter blue path is another path which is similar to the previous ABCDE correction wedge posted earlier this week. A very good analyst I follow and much respect has this as his path. Around the $3500-$3800 level is where we will look to see which path plays out. The $3800 level could complete wave II if we have entered the bull stage at this point. If we head up from there then we have to pay attention to the $4550 level as this would follow the 2nd correction scenario in light blue and will determine a continuation or completion of the "X" wave. A breakout above $4650 provides a level where the correction becomes much less a probability and it is more probable we head to $6000 from there. Below $3400 would negate the bull path as wave II would pullback to the start of wave I, and we can set our sights on $2200-$2800.
Keep in mind there are thousands of different outcomes possible. The arrows are direction indicators so expect bull/bear movements along the way regardless of the outcome. Over the years I have come to rely on EW and Fibb to provide the paths with the highest probable outcomes. I also like to know how other traders are viewing the market and many will be trading similar charts. Keep in mind everyone from large institutions to GS uses the same techniques and charts. So we may not hit the levels to a nickle, as buying could pick up in anticipation of the level and then FOMO takes over.
In closing: If you feel the need to tell me how I should write to fit your feelings and your needs, then you need to get out of the entitled mode you are in, go down to Kohls and buy some big boy pants. I write how I want to, and not how you want me to. You want buy sell stop points because you do not know how to trade. There are others you should follow.
Thanks and God Bless.
הערה:
I want to thank @gillianpatrice who posted the BTC cycle in one of her articles, that had me look twice at the 2013 and 2017 correction time frames.
הערה:
The (a)(b)(c) in the upper chart may not be the correct count and more likely a 535 count. But that correction took 6 months, but it is the point that matters.
הערה:
הערה:
Some see Bull run! ok maybe they are right. However what I see is SHORT SQUEEZE from an obvious crowded short H&S. I have warned be careful about these patterns as the large traders know what it takes to trigger the margins and will buy into weak volume triggering the buy backs creating a temporary bull run. Does it last? the lines are clear. Trading in such uncertainty either way is highly risky!
הערה:
I posted this a few minutes ago and then looked at my emails and there was a perfect trade setup from @Sean_Venegan that fit perfectly whether your a bull or bear. If I'm watching at the time, I will make this trade on either a breakout up, or a pullback from a breakdown. Best of both worlds. Goes to $6100 we are in. Pulls back close to our entry we exit for minimal loss. And his targets are very clear. Keep an eye at the previous $4480 high. But I really like this trade!
