BTC analysis 4/19/19

19 באפר׳ 2019

BTC has been ranging steadily above the $5000 price level ever since we formally broke it on April 7th, 2019. We eventually peaked at $5423(April 10th) before dropping back down to the $5000 level, ending with two volatile wicks on the daily timeframe; one for $4930(April 11), the other $4862(April 12). Then on April 13th, 2019, we have a small red doji candlestick which formed with diminished selling volume. The last time sell volume was this low was on March 31st, 2019, which was followed by the tremendous breakout that occurred on April 2nd, up until its peak on April 10th. I do not disclose this fact to state that another pump may follow, but solely for the purpose of recognizing volume.
Taking into consideration the current fibonacci level and elliott wave we seem to be following, It seems that wave 3 ended at $5423. We had a pretty quick retracement, which broke the 1.618 fib level ($4997.34) for a very short period of time before climbing up above again and resting on this level as support. For bitcoin to continue this bullish run, we would need to see an increase in volume to break the strong resistance of $5423, which if broken, would allow us to run up to $5816, the 2.618 fibonacci level.
Using Ichimoku clouds to analyze bitcoins current trend can be quite helpful. With my conversion line(blue line) set at 9days, and the base line(purple line) set at 26days, these moving averages do provide fairly decent help in my readings. On the 1Week timeframe, the conversion line was strong resistance for the run in the week of April 8th-15th, where the candlesticks wick met with resistance briefly before getting rejected. The 1Week timeframe also shows a big divergence between the conversion and base line, with the conversion line at $5423 and the base line resting at $4538. Until this gap closes in more, I do not believe we will be seeing a bull run occur, especially anytime soon.
The following picture shows bitcoin on the 1Week timeframe****

I also would like to disclose some important historical references that I think may be essential in understanding bitcoins movements for the present, and future. On the chart above, you will see a green line priced at $5045(this should be a range between $4900-$5100, not a specific price). This price range is incredibly important to take note of as this was the price level that acted as major resistance back in 2017, during our most recent bitcoin boom. Price first peaked on September 2nd, 2017 at $4930 and once again at $4962 on October 10th, 2017 before breaking this double top on October 12th, 2017, allowing bitcoin to run up to the $7755 mark on November 8th, 2017. However, before such a tremendous run, there was an incredibly volatile wick towards the downside on October 18th, 2017 where price touched $5045 briefly(This can be known as Capitulation.) These historical references can help to emphasize how crucial it is to take note of bitcoin being within the $5000 area, and how we should continue to keep a consistent eye on it's upcoming movements.
The following chart shows bitcoins price movement in 2017 from september to november *****

It seems that as of right now, bitcoin refuses to fall below $5000. If it was to close below $5000, we may see a pretty hefty drop, most likely towards the 26Day MA(conversion line.) However, as of right now, it seems as if bitcoin is gearing up to retest the $5400 level. For it to break, volume would need to increase. There is a possibility it may reach such a level to form a double top formation before falling. Let's keep an eye on volume, news, the indicators, and see where bitcoin ends up next!

If you made it this far, I would like to thank you for reading my analysis! I hope you enjoyed and maybe even learned something from it. If you have any advice in terms of writing, TA, or anything else, feel free to message me or leave a comment below. Thank you!

-Rocky-



*This information is not a recommendation or advice for active trading. Everything has been written solely for educational purposes only.*