BTCUSDT weekly menace and fundamentals
Hey everyone, wanted to post an update on the weekly chart which is looking undecisive at best and bearish at it's worst.
Clear Head and Shoulders pattern can be spotted on the weekly chart. The beginning of the formation was identified in december and is still running.
One of the most reactive legendary trendlines (dashed on the chart) has is yet again being tested, and with repeated tests any S/R level weakens.
If this trendline breaks pre price will go to the 55 Weekly that is not that far away from the H&S neckline that being at around the 30k level.
The 30k level is CRUCIAL now, it is our last support rampart before we head to lower levels that are situated between 20k and 24k.
Zoomed in to the 4h chart
The 4 hour chart that was posted earlier now has only 2 bearish scenarios running, the third retrace scenario was invalidated. The 30-40k range is still holding.
Fundamentals are not that bad
The market is in fear, the last local rally was powered by insitutionals buying, and even if we do have a lot of institutionals lined up for entering BTC, their entries are based on price levels and not on a given time period.
BTC miners are being closed down in china, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The news sure did scare a lot of retails and might have even started the beginning of the last drop, however i think this news is already priced in. This fundamental aspect of BTC should be seen as a positive as the supply is decreasing. Of course the miners will be moved to other countries and most certainly the US will be part of them.
El Salvador is facing headwind and the process is taking more than we would want to. I think that historically countries that have shown open crypto support have seen their processes slowed down or completely shut down. In my opinion the best approach for a crypto friendly country would be neutrality and just looking the other way.
What can you get out of this analysis?
One important aspect is the 30k-40k range we are in, even if we are facing the menace of the head and shoulders on the weekly we can still play some swings with stop losses.
Clear Head and Shoulders pattern can be spotted on the weekly chart. The beginning of the formation was identified in december and is still running.
One of the most reactive legendary trendlines (dashed on the chart) has is yet again being tested, and with repeated tests any S/R level weakens.
If this trendline breaks pre price will go to the 55 Weekly that is not that far away from the H&S neckline that being at around the 30k level.
The 30k level is CRUCIAL now, it is our last support rampart before we head to lower levels that are situated between 20k and 24k.
Zoomed in to the 4h chart
The 4 hour chart that was posted earlier now has only 2 bearish scenarios running, the third retrace scenario was invalidated. The 30-40k range is still holding.
Fundamentals are not that bad
The market is in fear, the last local rally was powered by insitutionals buying, and even if we do have a lot of institutionals lined up for entering BTC, their entries are based on price levels and not on a given time period.
BTC miners are being closed down in china, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The news sure did scare a lot of retails and might have even started the beginning of the last drop, however i think this news is already priced in. This fundamental aspect of BTC should be seen as a positive as the supply is decreasing. Of course the miners will be moved to other countries and most certainly the US will be part of them.
El Salvador is facing headwind and the process is taking more than we would want to. I think that historically countries that have shown open crypto support have seen their processes slowed down or completely shut down. In my opinion the best approach for a crypto friendly country would be neutrality and just looking the other way.
What can you get out of this analysis?
One important aspect is the 30k-40k range we are in, even if we are facing the menace of the head and shoulders on the weekly we can still play some swings with stop losses.
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