BTC DECEMBER FOMC
Going into FOMC the consensus is we'll see a 25bps cut from the FED (95% chance), this would take interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5%. Because the expectation of a cut is so certain, we can assume that the markets have priced this in so baring any craziness in the form of a different result we should see market sentiment remain the same, bullish.
A FED pause,(although unlikely according to data) would be very bearish in the the short term in terms of volatility. I would expect to see price revisit the $98-99K mark where the 4H 200EMA would roughly be. In a bullmarket the 4H 200EMA can be used as a great support level often bouncing off of it.
For a 25bps cut which is the expected outcome, we have two paths IMO. The bullish path is consolidation under the ATH then a break above, retest and off we go towards $110,000. The bearish path is a loss of this key S/R level after a consolidation above support and break under with a confirmed retest of new resistance. I know it's typical "could go up, could go down", however it's the context that matters here.
Alts have taken a back seat for the last week or so, BTC.D at a key level and a rejection off this level would mean alts can play catch-up while as BTC consolidates. We very rarely see BTC drop and altcoins pump so this is the most likely outcome to me baring no upsets in FOMC.
A FED pause,(although unlikely according to data) would be very bearish in the the short term in terms of volatility. I would expect to see price revisit the $98-99K mark where the 4H 200EMA would roughly be. In a bullmarket the 4H 200EMA can be used as a great support level often bouncing off of it.
For a 25bps cut which is the expected outcome, we have two paths IMO. The bullish path is consolidation under the ATH then a break above, retest and off we go towards $110,000. The bearish path is a loss of this key S/R level after a consolidation above support and break under with a confirmed retest of new resistance. I know it's typical "could go up, could go down", however it's the context that matters here.
Alts have taken a back seat for the last week or so, BTC.D at a key level and a rejection off this level would mean alts can play catch-up while as BTC consolidates. We very rarely see BTC drop and altcoins pump so this is the most likely outcome to me baring no upsets in FOMC.
הערה
There is the wick to my area of interest ($98-99k)
We really need to hold above the 4H 200EMA and bounce off it, if we lose it I would say a risk off environment until at least the new year as the big boys relax a bit over the holidays.
הערה
Well.. Risk off for now then it seems since the 4H 200 EMA has been lost הערה
First attempt at reclaiming the 4H 200EMA rejected, if we get a reclaim by the end of the day that very positive. If not I think we see a lot of sideways/ grind down until at least the new year. הערה
2nd attempt...הערה
Back above the 4H 200EMA needs to close above it on the daily, half way there now.
הערה
Most of the flash crash wick has been filled now, plus a reclaim of the 4H 200 EMA. BTC looking good, all that changes if the 4H 200 EMA is lost again. 
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