BTC/USDT: Testing $106K Resistance – Breakout or Pullback?
Key Takeaways and Comprehensive Analysis
1. Bullish Momentum
• The overall trend remains upward, with a potential target between 109k and 110k.
• BTC is currently testing critical resistance near 105k–106k, which aligns with key levels on multiple indicators and price dynamics.
2. Short-term Correction Risk
• On shorter timeframes (2H/4H), RSI is approaching overbought levels, and ISPD indicators show signs of high satisfaction among investors.
• A pullback to 100k–101k (support from Auto AVWAP and EMA21) remains possible before the next leg higher.
3. No Imminent Supply Shock
• While exchange balances appear to be dropping, this is mainly due to significant BTC migrating to ETF custody wallets.
• The combined BTC supply in exchanges and ETFs has remained stable at around 3 million coins, suggesting no immediate scarcity driving this rally.
4. Upside Targets
• Resistance:
• 105k–106k (major pivot).
• 109k–110k (next target, supported by structural analysis).
• 114k–115k (possible extension if momentum accelerates).
• Support:
• 101k–103k (EMA21 and intraday key support).
• 99k–100k (psychological level and VWAP).
5. Trading Scenarios
• Scenario 1 – Pullback Buy:
• If BTC retraces to 100k–101k, this could provide a strong entry point for traders aiming for the 109k–110k target.
• Scenario 2 – Breakout Entry:
• A confirmed break above 106k (with a 4H or Daily close) would signal continuation, with targets at 109k and beyond.
6. On-Chain Confirmation
• Metrics show steady capital inflows, with the Realized Cap increasing by 2.1x from the previous cycle’s low.
• Long-term holders have distributed approximately 1.2 million BTC since December 2023, absorbed by new buyers at higher price levels.
7. Final Perspective
• BTC remains in a strong bullish phase. The key inflection point at 105k–106k will determine whether the next leg higher is immediate or preceded by a short pullback.
• A breakout above 106k opens the door to 109k–110k, with further upside possible if market momentum continues to build.
• Traders can watch for entries on dips or breakout confirmations, with the current macro and technical environment favoring long positions.
1. Bullish Momentum
• The overall trend remains upward, with a potential target between 109k and 110k.
• BTC is currently testing critical resistance near 105k–106k, which aligns with key levels on multiple indicators and price dynamics.
2. Short-term Correction Risk
• On shorter timeframes (2H/4H), RSI is approaching overbought levels, and ISPD indicators show signs of high satisfaction among investors.
• A pullback to 100k–101k (support from Auto AVWAP and EMA21) remains possible before the next leg higher.
3. No Imminent Supply Shock
• While exchange balances appear to be dropping, this is mainly due to significant BTC migrating to ETF custody wallets.
• The combined BTC supply in exchanges and ETFs has remained stable at around 3 million coins, suggesting no immediate scarcity driving this rally.
4. Upside Targets
• Resistance:
• 105k–106k (major pivot).
• 109k–110k (next target, supported by structural analysis).
• 114k–115k (possible extension if momentum accelerates).
• Support:
• 101k–103k (EMA21 and intraday key support).
• 99k–100k (psychological level and VWAP).
5. Trading Scenarios
• Scenario 1 – Pullback Buy:
• If BTC retraces to 100k–101k, this could provide a strong entry point for traders aiming for the 109k–110k target.
• Scenario 2 – Breakout Entry:
• A confirmed break above 106k (with a 4H or Daily close) would signal continuation, with targets at 109k and beyond.
6. On-Chain Confirmation
• Metrics show steady capital inflows, with the Realized Cap increasing by 2.1x from the previous cycle’s low.
• Long-term holders have distributed approximately 1.2 million BTC since December 2023, absorbed by new buyers at higher price levels.
7. Final Perspective
• BTC remains in a strong bullish phase. The key inflection point at 105k–106k will determine whether the next leg higher is immediate or preceded by a short pullback.
• A breakout above 106k opens the door to 109k–110k, with further upside possible if market momentum continues to build.
• Traders can watch for entries on dips or breakout confirmations, with the current macro and technical environment favoring long positions.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.