BTC: Navigating the Correction – Key Levels and Swing Strategy
Choosing the Most Relevant Timeframe for a Position
• Given the neutrality of the AVG on the MTFTI and the bearish trend on the 1H to 6H timeframes, the market lacks short-term momentum.
• The 12H and 1D timeframes maintain a bullish trend but are currently in a slow corrective phase.
• From a pure swing trading perspective, the 8H or 12H timeframes can provide the best reversal signals, as they are slow enough to filter out false signals but fast enough to catch a move when the market resumes its trend.
• Conclusion: The 8H or 12H timeframes appear to be a good compromise for a swing trading strategy, given that the goal is to wait for the correction to end before re-entering in line with the still-positive long-term trend.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Major Supports on BTC/USDT
• Short-term (2H/4H): 95,850–94,700 USDT (LoAVWAP).
• Stronger low in the correction zone: 93,000 USDT.
• Below that, the last short/mid-term defense: 89,000–90,000 USDT.
Resistances
• On the daily, HiAVWAP is around 102,000–103,000 USDT, or even 105,000 USDT if considering previous highs.
• The 102k–105k zone has often acted as a major resistance, blocking upward momentum.
Context
• If BTC corrects below 96k, there is room to test 93k.
• A clear break below 89–90k would invalidate the bullish daily structure and could trigger a deeper decline.
Final (Non-Financial) Recommendations
• Wait for the correction to end before initiating or reinforcing a position. The 8H–12H timeframes often provide the best swing timing.
• Partial buy zone if BTC retests ~93k–94k, with a safety stop below 89k for those looking to limit risk.
• Monitor Investor Satisfaction (ISPD & Mason’s Line):
• If Investor Satisfaction drops to 0.10–0.15 on 8H/12H while BTC holds a key support, it could be a solid entry point.
• Consider scaling out or taking profits if BTC revisits 100–102k (HiAVWAP daily), especially if Investor Satisfaction rises above 0.9.
• Stay alert to macro news (inflation, potential Trump/Elon comments) that could accelerate the short-term correction.
Summary
• Technical indicators confirm an ongoing correction.
• However, the broader trend (12H-1D-1W) remains bullish, favoring a potential rebound above 100k.
• The 93,000 USDT level is critical: above it, the correction remains healthy; below it, caution is warranted.
• Given the neutrality of the AVG on the MTFTI and the bearish trend on the 1H to 6H timeframes, the market lacks short-term momentum.
• The 12H and 1D timeframes maintain a bullish trend but are currently in a slow corrective phase.
• From a pure swing trading perspective, the 8H or 12H timeframes can provide the best reversal signals, as they are slow enough to filter out false signals but fast enough to catch a move when the market resumes its trend.
• Conclusion: The 8H or 12H timeframes appear to be a good compromise for a swing trading strategy, given that the goal is to wait for the correction to end before re-entering in line with the still-positive long-term trend.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Major Supports on BTC/USDT
• Short-term (2H/4H): 95,850–94,700 USDT (LoAVWAP).
• Stronger low in the correction zone: 93,000 USDT.
• Below that, the last short/mid-term defense: 89,000–90,000 USDT.
Resistances
• On the daily, HiAVWAP is around 102,000–103,000 USDT, or even 105,000 USDT if considering previous highs.
• The 102k–105k zone has often acted as a major resistance, blocking upward momentum.
Context
• If BTC corrects below 96k, there is room to test 93k.
• A clear break below 89–90k would invalidate the bullish daily structure and could trigger a deeper decline.
Final (Non-Financial) Recommendations
• Wait for the correction to end before initiating or reinforcing a position. The 8H–12H timeframes often provide the best swing timing.
• Partial buy zone if BTC retests ~93k–94k, with a safety stop below 89k for those looking to limit risk.
• Monitor Investor Satisfaction (ISPD & Mason’s Line):
• If Investor Satisfaction drops to 0.10–0.15 on 8H/12H while BTC holds a key support, it could be a solid entry point.
• Consider scaling out or taking profits if BTC revisits 100–102k (HiAVWAP daily), especially if Investor Satisfaction rises above 0.9.
• Stay alert to macro news (inflation, potential Trump/Elon comments) that could accelerate the short-term correction.
Summary
• Technical indicators confirm an ongoing correction.
• However, the broader trend (12H-1D-1W) remains bullish, favoring a potential rebound above 100k.
• The 93,000 USDT level is critical: above it, the correction remains healthy; below it, caution is warranted.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.