Bitcoin - two possible scenarios

27 ביוני 2023

Hello, everyone!

Bitcoin continues it's sideways move. It's almost obviously that it's not the start of the new bearish trend, but just a correction. Elliott waves analysis told me that BTC is printing wave 4. Has this wave been ended? Let's try to reveal!

Let's take a look at the 4h time frame BTCUSDT price chart. Here we can see the safe support level at 29K, where the Fibonacci 0.38 zone is located in conjunction with the target area for lower degree wave 4. In my opinion it's super strong support and every bullish sign there can bring the BTC price above 32k.

But here we have one moment. Let's take a look at the local price structure. Today Bitcoin broke the previous key fractal level. Therefore the local downtrend is officially over. It could be the sign of the correction end, but in this case the retracement in wave 4 is not enough.

Now we have the local impulse. I think it's not gonna be the mistake to define the 0.61 Fibonacci level for this impulse like a risky support. I am going to look at the 1h or even 15 min time frame to undertand if market is going to reverse from this level or continue dumping the the safe support. Now this level is located at $30340, but if pump continue this level is gonna be higher because we should recalculate the Fibonacci retracement.

Bets regards, Ivan
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