BTC USD: Fed's Next Rate Cut Could Trigger Volatility #Cutrates
TLDR for instant access of this document:
1 Fed Rate Cut Predictions: 50/50 chance of 0.25% or 0.50% cut, with 0.50% being more likely to prevent a market crash.
2 Market Insight: Expect high volatility in both BTC and stocks ahead of the rate cut, with manipulation and panic likely.
3 Strategy: Focus on strong risk management, protect holdings with stop-losses, and prepare for unpredictable market swings.
4 Mid-Term Outlook: Bullish through Q3 2025 with a likely resurgence in money printing after rate cuts..
FED Rate Cut Report: Either .5 or .25 result, What’s Next?
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision on September 18th is one of the most anticipated financial events of the year. There’s been a lot of speculation around whether the cut will be
0.25% or 0.50%, with a 50:50 chance for either outcome. But if you've been following along, you know that I’ve been calling for a less cut rate because 0.50% cut would open a can of worms which will lead us to 1 week of bloody market just like covid announcement, for months now I’ve been thinking about 0.5 is a dangerous number to ask and the reasons are very simple that is why I decided to ask for 0.25 as this number is not easy to comprehend and can manipulate and delay pumps vs 0.5 as this is clear crash and any crash so far was heavily bought by billionaires institutions and even retails, and the reasons are clear why.
If the Fed opts for the 0.25% cut, expect another market crash similar to the recent "Blood Monday" we witnessed. But with a 0.50% cut, the Fed can calm the markets, point to falling inflation, and possibly signal more cuts on the horizon.
Market Insight: A Gamble on BTC and Stocks
In the lead-up to the rate cut decision, the markets—especially Bitcoin and stocks—are a complete gamble. It’s a casino right now, and anyone making moves in the market must be prepared for wicks on both sides and extreme volatility.
I’m personally holding my positions—both spot and the longs I called at 50K and 53K during the recent crash that we missed and we are wrong about it means we failed to ride 48K as also stated in many of my live videos.. But for those who haven’t positioned themselves yet, be extremely cautious. If the 0.50% cut materializes, we could see short-term panic, especially with potential geopolitical risks like Israel possibly invading southern Lebanon adding fuel to the fire.
However, despite this short-term chaos, I remain bullish through Q3 2025 JULY. For long-term investors, these periods of panic can be a buying opportunity—especially when fear peaks. Right now, my focus is on holding my current positions and waiting for the dust to settle.
Strategy for the Short Term: Manage Your Risk
In the short term, the key to surviving this period of volatility is risk management. If the Fed announces a 0.50% cut, both Bitcoin and stocks will likely face pressure, compounded by potential geopolitical events like the Israel-Lebanon conflict. Markets may react with fear, and the Fed could use this as a convenient excuse, attributing the market's reaction to geopolitical uncertainty rather than the rate cut itself.
Here’s how I’m managing my risk:
If the rate cut triggers a market pump, I’ll simply ride the wave with my existing positions. But if we see a dump, my stop-losses will activate, protecting me from any losses. This is about surviving days like these—you don’t need to predict every move; you just need a solid plan for volatile periods. Surprises are inevitable, but with the right strategy, you can maximize gains and minimize risk.
Mid-Term and Long-Term Outlook: Flood of Money Printing
In the mid-term, any panic that arises will eventually be drowned out by the inevitable flood of money printing. We’ve already seen examples of this in the past few months, with $18 billion USDT printed and more cash injections likely coming in Q4 2024, particularly from FTX.
Once the rate cuts are done, you can bet that the money printers will go back into full swing. Jerome Powell will likely have to pull the trigger on this again soon. This is why, despite the short-term volatility, I remain fully bullish for the mid- to long-term. The short-term is all about surviving the chaos, but in the long term, the Fed will continue to prop up the markets with fresh liquidity.
1 Fed Rate Cut Predictions: 50/50 chance of 0.25% or 0.50% cut, with 0.50% being more likely to prevent a market crash.
2 Market Insight: Expect high volatility in both BTC and stocks ahead of the rate cut, with manipulation and panic likely.
3 Strategy: Focus on strong risk management, protect holdings with stop-losses, and prepare for unpredictable market swings.
4 Mid-Term Outlook: Bullish through Q3 2025 with a likely resurgence in money printing after rate cuts..
FED Rate Cut Report: Either .5 or .25 result, What’s Next?
The Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision on September 18th is one of the most anticipated financial events of the year. There’s been a lot of speculation around whether the cut will be
0.25% or 0.50%, with a 50:50 chance for either outcome. But if you've been following along, you know that I’ve been calling for a less cut rate because 0.50% cut would open a can of worms which will lead us to 1 week of bloody market just like covid announcement, for months now I’ve been thinking about 0.5 is a dangerous number to ask and the reasons are very simple that is why I decided to ask for 0.25 as this number is not easy to comprehend and can manipulate and delay pumps vs 0.5 as this is clear crash and any crash so far was heavily bought by billionaires institutions and even retails, and the reasons are clear why.
- 0.25% Cut vs. 0.50% Cut: A 0.25% cut at this stage would be too little. We’ve already seen a significant market crash recently, and a small cut wouldn’t provide the economic support needed to stabilize things. On the other hand, a 0.50% cut would signal that the Federal Reserve is serious about maintaining economic momentum, particularly in light of falling inflation numbers.
- Inflation Data: I predicted twice that both the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) would come in better than expected, and both predictions played out as expected. These improved inflation numbers give the Fed the leeway to justify a larger rate cut, and Jerome Powell will likely highlight this during the announcement.
If the Fed opts for the 0.25% cut, expect another market crash similar to the recent "Blood Monday" we witnessed. But with a 0.50% cut, the Fed can calm the markets, point to falling inflation, and possibly signal more cuts on the horizon.
Market Insight: A Gamble on BTC and Stocks
In the lead-up to the rate cut decision, the markets—especially Bitcoin and stocks—are a complete gamble. It’s a casino right now, and anyone making moves in the market must be prepared for wicks on both sides and extreme volatility.
- Scam Wicks: Expect manipulations on both the long and short sides, with rapid price movements designed to shake out traders. This volatility is typical when the market is uncertain about a major event like the rate cut.
I’m personally holding my positions—both spot and the longs I called at 50K and 53K during the recent crash that we missed and we are wrong about it means we failed to ride 48K as also stated in many of my live videos.. But for those who haven’t positioned themselves yet, be extremely cautious. If the 0.50% cut materializes, we could see short-term panic, especially with potential geopolitical risks like Israel possibly invading southern Lebanon adding fuel to the fire.
However, despite this short-term chaos, I remain bullish through Q3 2025 JULY. For long-term investors, these periods of panic can be a buying opportunity—especially when fear peaks. Right now, my focus is on holding my current positions and waiting for the dust to settle.
Strategy for the Short Term: Manage Your Risk
In the short term, the key to surviving this period of volatility is risk management. If the Fed announces a 0.50% cut, both Bitcoin and stocks will likely face pressure, compounded by potential geopolitical events like the Israel-Lebanon conflict. Markets may react with fear, and the Fed could use this as a convenient excuse, attributing the market's reaction to geopolitical uncertainty rather than the rate cut itself.
Here’s how I’m managing my risk:
- Stop-Losses: All my spot holdings and long positions are protected with stop-losses set at entry. This way, I minimize my risk—if the market takes a sharp turn, I won’t lose anything, but I’m also in position to ride a rally if the market moves upward.
- Stay Cautious: My risk management right now is at the highest level it’s ever been. This market is highly unpredictable, and my primary focus is on protecting my capital. I recommend others adopt the same strategy. Whether you’re managing a six- or seven-figure portfolio, this is the time to be extra cautious.
If the rate cut triggers a market pump, I’ll simply ride the wave with my existing positions. But if we see a dump, my stop-losses will activate, protecting me from any losses. This is about surviving days like these—you don’t need to predict every move; you just need a solid plan for volatile periods. Surprises are inevitable, but with the right strategy, you can maximize gains and minimize risk.
Mid-Term and Long-Term Outlook: Flood of Money Printing
In the mid-term, any panic that arises will eventually be drowned out by the inevitable flood of money printing. We’ve already seen examples of this in the past few months, with $18 billion USDT printed and more cash injections likely coming in Q4 2024, particularly from FTX.
Once the rate cuts are done, you can bet that the money printers will go back into full swing. Jerome Powell will likely have to pull the trigger on this again soon. This is why, despite the short-term volatility, I remain fully bullish for the mid- to long-term. The short-term is all about surviving the chaos, but in the long term, the Fed will continue to prop up the markets with fresh liquidity.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.