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CHF/JPY Strong Multi Bullish Trends

1624
Long Term Trend Bullish

Mid Term Trend Bullish

Short Term Trend Bullish

6D Bar Chart Bullish

CHF/JPY Technical Analysis

Moving Averages:STRONG BUYBuy (
Technical Indicators:STRONG BUY

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 151.80 151.90 152.01 152.11 152.23 152.32 152.44
Fibonacci 151.90 151.98 152.03 152.11 152.19 152.24 152.32
Camarilla 152.07 152.09 152.11 152.11 152.14 152.16 152.18
Woodie's 151.80 151.90 152.01 152.11 152.23 152.32 152.44
DeMark's - - 152.06 152.13 152.27 - -



Moving Averages


MA5 152.05
Buy 152.09
Buy
MA10 151.98
Buy 151.99
Buy
MA20 151.82
Buy 151.89
Buy
MA50 151.75
Buy 151.73
Buy
MA100 151.58
Buy 151.80
Buy
MA200 152.13
Buy 151.67
Buy

Name Value Action
RSI(14) 69.405 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 52.801 Neutral
STOCHRSI(14) 100.000 Overbought
MACD(12,26) 0.100 Buy
ADX(14) 61.492 Buy
Williams %R -3.847 Overbought
CCI(14) 298.5981 Overbought
ATR(14) 0.1507 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.2454 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 65.464 Buy
ROC 0.296 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.5500 Buy


Fundamentals of the Swiss Franc
Whether a currency is strong or weak often depends on what the country’s or jurisdiction’s leading policymakers want it to be. This is largely within the purview of monetary policy run by the central bank who can influence this.

In the case of Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) wants a weak franc. It is doing this because it wants to boost inflation to rid the country of its deflationary problems that have plagued it for the better part of the past decade.

So, why is deflation bad?
If monetary policy is run with a deflationary bias, this means you will run an economy that never runs into its capacity constraints – e.g., “full employment”. Some amount of inflation will always be present when this is achieved because of structural flaws in our economic system stemming from imperfect competition, such as monopoly, duopoly, and oligopoly.

Therefore, some amount of inflation will always be present when full employment is truly reached. This is why inflation targeting as a central bank mandate is a no-brainer.

When an economy doesn’t achieve full employment it won’t maximize output. Unemployment as a whole will be high, because companies rarely cut nominal wages. Instead, they tend to lay off labour. People won’t earn as much income accordingly. Spending will decline, cash hoarding will become more common, and GDP – in developed economies, consumption is the majority of GDP – will contract and living standards will decline as a direct result.

Deflation produces permanent economic anaemia as not enough money and credit are being spent on goods, services, and financial assets. These cycles tend to be self-reinforcing. Lower incomes lead to lower spending, which leads to lower capacity to borrow, which produces even lower incomes and spending and overall output in a downward spiral.

Equity markets will remain below their peak with declining incomes and contractive (or insufficiently expansionary) monetary policy. Japan’s deflationary problems that have persisted for nearly three decades has left the country with a stock market that is still approximately 42% below its 1989 peak. This is obviously not good for domestic wealth.

The Swiss National Bank’s Effect
In the hope of permanently fixing Switzerland’s deflationary problems, the SNB has resorted to negative interest rates. This can seem counterintuitive because it means that the buyer has to pay in order to hold short-term debt.

In deflationary environments, it can make sense to hold a negative yielding bond if your real (inflation-adjusted) return is positive. In other words, if the negative rate on the bond is higher than the rate at which prices are declining on goods and services in the economy. It also serves as an incentive to get economic actors to put their money into riskier assets to increase collective returns and create a “wealth effect”. Theoretically, this should also boost spending and investment behaviour.

The SNB’s primary rate-setting mechanism, the SARON (Swiss Average Rate Overnight), is minus-75bps and overnight CHF LIBOR is minus-78 to minus-80bps. This helps stimulate outflows (exports) by working to make the currency cheaper. The Swiss franc becomes less desirable when its rate of return – and the rate of return of the assets that are denominated in francs – is not attractive.

The SNB also does their quantitative easing (asset buying) program much differently than the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. Instead of buying domestic assets, the SNB buys outside assets, such as US large cap stocks, to push out liquidity and weaken the franc. When you buy domestic assets, this has the effect of increasing the value of the currency because these assets are what create demand for it. The SNB is doing the reverse process.

As an antidote to the SNB’s moves, traders largely recognize that Switzerland is in relatively solid shape economically. It has a fiscal surplus and large current account surplus. It also has low indebtedness, high wages, and high GDP per capita. This makes the Swiss franc in demand as it is a structurally sound currency.

In strong global economic environments, the franc is often used by traders as the short leg in buying currencies with high interest rates. This is called carry trading. This borrowing dampens demand for it because it is in effect being sold, which decreases its price.

But when the market is weak you often see strong buying activity in the franc because traders unwind their carry trades. These types of trades often involve being long a riskier asset or currency.

The most broadly helpful thing to know about the fundamentals of the Swiss franc is that it serves as a safe haven currency.

This is because its low interest rates make it attractive to borrow in, and covering these borrowed funds during periods of market turmoil means buying activity will take place.

Therefore, many consider the Swiss franc as a market hedge, similar to gold, or else a basic way to diversify a portfolio.

In good times, you will typically see it appreciate relative to positive-carry assets, such as currencies like the Australian dollar (AUD) or the emerging market equities example.

These rates of depreciation in the franc will generally be of a steadier magnitude than the sharp rates of appreciation during market weakness, given contractions tend to be much swifter and volatile than good economic periods.

הערה
Ueda leaves everything unchanged
“What he had to say was in no way positive for JPY, as he underlined that he would continue his predecessor’s ultra-expansionary monetary policy. The indicator of this is the yield curve control (YCC) which would probably be the first element to change in a possible exit scenario. However, Ueda rejected this kind of change. In other words: everything remains unchanged.”

“Tthe Yen is only likely to appreciate long-term if there is this early move away from current monetary policy. Otherwise, it will mean: If the BoJ waits for too long, the Yen might easily suffer despite increased (real) yields. Or inflation eases back below the BoJ’s target level (2%). At that point we would be back to square one, which means a move away from the ultra-expansionary monetary policy would be unlikely. Short, medium and long-term.”

“Anyone who has already read the IMF’s latest "World Economic Outlook" and who follows its view might come to the conclusion that after the current inflation shock has worn off real yields in the rest of the world will be back at low levels. Followers of that view might not be excessively JPY-pessimistic, as the real yield disadvantage of the Yen would be reasonably moderate in that case.”
הערה
Here is an analysis of the positive and negative impacts of a weak and strong Japanese yen on various countries and regions:

Positive Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:

Japanese Exports: A weak yen can boost Japanese exports by making them more price competitive in international markets. It makes Japanese goods relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing demand and stimulating export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A weak yen can attract more international tourists to Japan, as their foreign currencies can have greater purchasing power in the country. This can benefit the tourism industry and generate foreign exchange earnings.
Overseas Investments: A weak yen can encourage Japanese businesses and investors to seek opportunities abroad. It makes overseas investments relatively cheaper in terms of yen, potentially promoting outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and diversifying business activities.
Negative Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:

Imported Inflation: A weak yen increases the cost of importing goods and raw materials, potentially leading to higher inflation. This can impact the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and erode their standard of living.
Energy Imports: Japan is heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly oil and natural gas. A weak yen increases the cost of energy imports, which can have adverse effects on energy-intensive industries and contribute to higher production costs.
Consumer Electronics: Japan is known for its consumer electronics industry. A weak yen can increase the cost of importing electronic components and materials, potentially affecting the competitiveness and profitability of Japanese electronic manufacturers.
Positive Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:

Imported Goods: A strong yen makes imported goods relatively cheaper, benefiting Japanese consumers and potentially increasing their purchasing power.
Energy Costs: A strong yen reduces the cost of energy imports, which can benefit energy-intensive industries and help control production costs.
Travel and Education Abroad: A strong yen can make international travel and education abroad more affordable for Japanese citizens, potentially boosting outbound tourism and educational opportunities.
Negative Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:

Japanese Exports: A strong yen can make Japanese exports relatively more expensive in international markets, potentially reducing their competitiveness and impacting export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A strong yen can make Japan relatively more expensive for international tourists, potentially affecting the tourism industry and reducing foreign exchange earnings.
Inflation and Deflation Concerns: A strong yen can exacerbate deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, as it makes imported goods cheaper and can lead to lower domestic prices. This can hinder economic growth and pose challenges for policymakers.
It's important to note that the impact of currency strength or weakness on a country's economy can vary depending on various factors, including the country's economic structure, trade dynamics, fiscal policies, and global market conditions. The effects on specific countries or regions can also depend on their trade relationships, exchange rate policies, and economic interdependencies with Japan.
הערה
Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

DXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61

Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.

Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.
הערה
US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
הערה
USDJPY Bullish
הערה
YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data

China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates

The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month.

Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data

Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon.
China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data

The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
הערה
bullish
הערה
BoJ’s Ueda: Still Some Distance to Sustainably Achieve 2% Inflation Target
הערה
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
הערה
This trade is stil open and active

relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open

European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.

Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
הערה
TRADE OPEN and active : YEN DOWN! YEN DOWN YEN DOWN!
הערה
Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
הערה
trade is open
הערה
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
הערה
Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down

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