In Dec1998 when crudeoil was trading at 7$ -no one even thought that it will travel to 147$ from 50$ base. The explosive rally from 50$ to 147$ was in wave-5 & It behaved exactly as bookish structure. In commodities wave -5 is 80-90% time bigger than wave-1 & wave-3- which was the excellent case for the oil between Jan2007 & July 2008 5th wave scenario.
Always after an extended wave which was wave -5 here -it dropped suddenly & took market bulls for a ride- what a roller coaster ride - so, never forget to carry your pills, which can help you in controling your pukish behaviour so I always suggest work on risk management more as compared to trading strategy as It is important to know where you are wrong & you can cut your losses asap.
Current Scenario
Moving in wave 4 which can complete in the zone 63-65$ & could be last stretch before it collapse for 26$ & wave-5 within wave-C
Trading Strategy
Short Term Scenario- Against 47$ as support or putting stops below 47$- once oil starts moving above 50$-we can look for the upside stretch of 63-65$.
Long Term Scenario- Collapse which could turn out to be true in few months or later, but cannot be skipped- kissing the zone 25$ to 30$ shall be minimum distance it travels downside to finish the structure & start a new bullish cycle for 100-115$ zone as the next target zone.