Long DELL @ 134.39-oversold

16 ביולי

This one is surprisingly profitable. Usually large caps aren't that great for these kinds of trades, but DELL is. On top of that, it's in a strong uptrend (up almost 200% in the last 12M), it is past earnings, and has a dividend coming up soon in case I"m stuck holding, which doesn't happen often with DELL. Additionally, it's already been oversold 2 days now and the longest it's been oversold in the last 12M has been 2 days.

Buy as long as it's oversold and sell each lot as it becomes both overbought and profitable is the plan here. Relevant stats are below.

12M Record: 15-2* (2 are from yesterday and today and not closed yet)

Including those two open trades as a 2% current loss and a zero right now-

Average trade = +6.7%
Median = +6.1%
Avg hold per lot = 6.7 trading days
Longest hold = 11 days
Largest position = 3 lots
Total 12M return = 1.02x lot size
Average return%/lot/day = +.95%

As always, this is for fun and not intended as financial advice, merely a log of my trades. Trade at your own risk. I'll post updates as I add or close lots.

17 ביולי

הערה

Still oversold. Added 1 lot at the close at 125.15

24 ביולי

הערה

Oversold again. Added 1 lot at the close @116.12

25 ביולי

הערה

Added 1 lot at the close @ 111.43

6 באוג׳

הערה

Accidentally added yesterday's added lot as a comment so I'll put it here with today's addition.

8/5 - added 1 lot @98.18 at the close (oversold)
8/6 - added 1 lot at the close @94.67

7 באוג׳

הערה

Added again - 1 lot @ 87.89

13 באוג׳

הערה

Closed the 3 most recently purchased lots at the close today at 99.94 because DELL is overbought and they are profitable. Still have 5 open lots that are negative. The 3 closed lots gained 1.8%, 5.6%, and 13.7% respectively.

19 באוג׳

הערה

Still overbought so I sold the Jul 25th lot at the close for 111.86 for 0.39% gain.

6 בספט׳

עסקה פעילה

Added 1 lot after hours today at 101.98 (oversold again)

9 בספט׳

הערה

DELL is being added to the S&P 500 on September 23. I don't know how much of a boost it will provide, but I expect there to be some buying pressure ahead of that event. I won't add more lots unless it gets oversold again, but that should give a little boost to the lots I already own. It already has today.

12 בספט׳

עסקה פעילה

DELL is short-term overbought so I sold the most recent lot from Sept. 6 at the close today @ 112.15, for a +10.0% gain in 4 trading days. Still holding the July 16, 17, and 24 lots.

I intend to do a full back test of my system on DELL but I have been busy backetesting on other tickers. I promise I will post the full results as an update here when I finish. I'm predicting a 90+% win rate now. We will see if I'm right later when I post it. Hold me accountable if it's below that!

Given what DELL has done since its re-IPO, though, that's not the bold statement it appears to be, given how my system works. Honestly, my whisper number is around 97% wins. Just about anyone could have made money long on DELL since it went public again. I cheer when my system makes money on the stocks that are down 50-90% since their IPO. See my idea for CAN as an example of that. Have a good evening!

13 בספט׳

הערה

I decided to do this backtest first, because it involved way less data input. This covers the entire time from DELL went public again (since the end of 2018).

Total # of trades: 140
Winning closed trades: 136
Losing / open trades: 4 (the three I discussed above and one just before that)

Win rate = 97.1% (barely hits the whisper number - I wonder if I'll get a boost or tank?)

Average win = 4.7%
Median win = 4.5%
1 in 5 trades gained over 7.1%
and 1 in 10 was over 8.8%

Not surprising that those numbers are lower than the data in the original post considering it's a much larger sample size taken during some rockier times than just this year for DELL.

Avg. hold = 28 trading days
Median hold = 9 trading days
78% of trades lasted 1 month (20 trading days) or less

Max # of lots held = 14

Return per lot per day held = +.166%
Annualized rate of return = .166% x 252 (trading days) = +41.8%

NOTE: that doesn't mean you make 41.8% per year on DELL trades. What it does mean is that trades are pretty profitable given how long they are held and that helps free up capital to use on other trades.

NOTE #2: That .166%/lot/day is skewed higher by the fact that DELL hasn't had to weather any REALLY bad market situations, so it didn't have long bearish periods where it took a long time for trades to close. Realistically, all these numbers read a little "hot" to me, based on my other backtesting results, but they are what they are. Any way you slice it, a 97% win rate leaves a smile on my face, and that's the number that feels least "hot" to me.

Even if that annualized rate of return is triple what it 'should" be (I think it is MAYBE double), consider that the long term annualized rate of return for stocks in general is around 10% since the 1950s. I'm very happy with the test results and frankly, am not surprised by any of it. Have a good weekend! Happy Friday the 13th!

17 בספט׳

עסקה פעילה

Sold the 116.12 July 24th lot for 116.84 just after the close for a humble 0.62% profit in 38 trading days. Better than a loss, though. Original 134.39 and July 17th 125.15 lots are still held.

27 בספט׳

עסקה פעילה

Sold the Jul 17th lot at the close today for 126.49 for a +1.1% gain in 50 trading days. Only the original 134.39 lot is left. Even though I'm down almost 6% from the original level, the trade is currently profitable overall because of the other lots that were already sold profitably.

22 באוק׳

עסקה פעילה

Oversold at the close, so 1 lot was added at 120.40

Lots held:

134.39
120.40

23 באוק׳

עסקה פעילה

Added 1 lot at 119.47 at the close - still oversold.

Lots currently held:

134.39
120.40
119.47

6 בנוב׳

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

Sold my entire position after hours for 135.70. Gains on the remaining 3 lots were:

+1.0% in 79 trading days
+12.7% in 10 trading days
+13.6% in 9 trading days

6 בנוב׳

הערה

Trade summary for my records:

Wins 10 Losses 0

Average gain per lot = +6.0%
Average holding period per lot = 22.2 trading days
Average gain per lot per day held = 0.27%
Annualized return = .27% x 252 trading days = 68.0%