Read Here Todays Opionion Polls

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This "trading idea" is published to provide unbiased and accurate data as available and additional information about stockmarkets, investors and traders bias.

This trading idea is not published to predict any result about the upcomming election in France or Netherlands.

Trader can use this information to be up to date and to compare the market bias with latest polls.

הערה

FEB 25 2017: What you need to know about the election:

General elections are planned to be held in the Netherlands on Wednesday, 15 March 2017 to elect all 150 members of the House of Representatives.[1]

Since 2002, every cabinet has resigned before completing their full four-year term and five elections were held between 2002 and 2012. The 2012 elections saw the Labour Party (PvdA) and People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) go head-to-head for the position of prime minister, gathering enough seats in the process to form an absolute majority. The VVD's Mark Rutte formed a coalition government with the PvdA, ousting the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) from government, while the Party for Freedom (PVV) went back to full opposition
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

FEB 25 2017: Divergency

The market consus view was until Jan 20th 2017 (Donald Trumps Inauguration) that Geert Wilders ultra far right anti Muslim and Anti EU Party PVV will win the Dutch Election by landslide. Rapidly but "silent" the far right Party PVV approval rates in the Netherlands deteriorate. What might suprise as well is that until now almost each available source is telling, that Geert Wilders is going to win the Dutch election.

This articel was published on FEB 2017 in UK:

Quote: The anti-Islam leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) is on course to win the most seats at the general election in March. His election would be the latest blow for Europe’s liberal order in the wake of the Donald Trump’s victory and the Brexit vote.Mr Wilders has pledged to close the Netherlands’ borders, shut down mosques and leave the euro and EU if he gets into power. Source: express.co.uk/news/politics/754516/Dutch-election-2017-will-Geert-Wilders-win-latest-polls-Netherlands-election

הערה

FEB 25 2017: Fact´s vs. Traders Investors

This article below was written about the french election. If you follow the fact´s than you can anticipate that Anglo Saxon Investors also do not fully understand the mechanics of the Dutch elections. Similar tothe France election for example some left wing Green Party voters likely now going to vote for the conservative Premier Rutte - only to avoid any victory for Gert Wilders.

FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"

Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608

הערה

FEB 25 2017: Facts. vs. Traders

What most traders missed to follow up is the reaction of the Dutch Stockmarket since January 20th (Trump Inauguration). Since this date Wilders PVV lost at least 25% of likely voters. The Dutch Stockmarket follows this excately. Most Traders don´t now about this issue.

Latest Dutch Opinion Polls: On Feb 23 Wilders PVV is now second only.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

Pro´s Betting On Victories Of Far Right Wing Parties.

הערה

FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Source: dn.se/nyheter/varlden/fake-sweden-expert-on-fox-news-has-criminal-convictions-in-us-no-connection-to-swedish-security/

הערה

FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776

הערה

FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

הערה

FEB 27 2017: New Poll: Wilders taking the lead
PVV (Wilders): 29 Seats
VVD (Dutch Prime Minister Rutte): 25 Seats

Wilders PVV still lost 25% from last years highes approval likely to win 37 Seats. Source and more informations here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

הערה

FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:

Todays numbers:
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 22 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)

Todays reading of 22 Seats (from 150) is the lowest number for Geert Wilders since 2015. In June 2016 Wilders PVV would had won 37 (!) seats. this is a loss of 15 seats or allmost 40%. Germany´s far right wing party AfD is showing exactely same numbers. In summer 2016 the AfD was noticed with up to 18 % of likely voters. Latest polls showing 8,5% or a loss of up to 50% of likely voters. The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR1 2017: Dutch Prime Minster Rutte is taking the leas

FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:

Todays numbers:
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 25 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)
The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR 01 2017: For German Readers. What you cab read today in SPON is what we are discussing here now for quite a while. Just read it ...
m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/a-1136946.html

הערה

MAR 03 2017: Second Poll is showing that Prime Minister Rutte´s VVD is taking the lead in the Netherlands. The far right anti EU and anti muslim party PVV is now second.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR 05 2017: New Poll is showing wilders taking the lead by one seat. Same time the 50plus party losing more ground to 5%. 50+ and PVV together in June 2016 had up to 50 seats (of 150). Now its 30. A loss of 40% if likely voters since June 2016.

PVV 25 Seats
VVD 24 Seats

הערה

MAR 06 2017: Polls unch.

The Dutch election was wide open going into the last full week of campaigning, as support for the populist message of Geert Wilders declined and Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to pick up the balance.
Source: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-06/dutch-election-wide-open-as-parties-vie-to-pick-up-wilders-votes

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MAR 07 2017: Tied 7 days before election.

PVV 24 Seats
VVD 25 Seats.

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MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge

Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action

Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-election-and-geert-wilder-future-of-european-union.html

הערה

Quote: MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html

הערה

MAR 08 2017: Wilder far right fatty loosing more ground now

PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats

הערה

MAR 08 2017: Wilders anti muslim and anti EU party PVV losses accelerating one week bevore election day.

PVV: 20 Seats
VVD: 24 Seats
Source en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR 08 2017: For German Traders and Readers

It´s on the frontpage of Germany largest newspaper: Trump backfires European far right parties: bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/europa/rechtspopulisten-im-umfragetief-ist-trump-schuld-50657154,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html

הערה

MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Source: time.com/4694764/geert-wilders-lead-slipping-because-trump/

הערה

MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/dutch-populist-wilders-feels-trump-burn-as-he-slides-in-polls

הערה

MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/08/frances-macron-seen-on-top-in-first-round-presidential-vote-poll.html

הערה

MAR 09 2017: 6 days before elections Netherlands anti-islam and anti EU Party PVV still unable taking the lead. Keep in mind that U.S. Investors betting "risk free trades" against Europe because they are sure that populism is growing in Europe.

Todays numbers telling diffrent story:

PVV: 23 Seats (had 38 in June 2016)
VVD: 26 Seats

הערה

MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR 13 2017: For German Readers (similar news in English language in a few minutes)
bild.de/politik/ausland/niederlandewahl/entscheidet-erdogan-die-wahl-50820182.bild.html

הערה

MAR 13 2017: Europe
Turkey dispute timing may benefit Dutch premier in election

washingtonpost.com/world/europe/turkey-dispute-timing-could-be-plus-for-dutch-pm-mark-rutte/2017/03/12/56583d1e-0729-11e7-bd19-fd3afa0f7e2a_story.html?utm_term=.bde67533010a

הערה

MAR13 2017: New Polls showing that Wilders far right anti muslim and anti EU Party is not able to take the lead in the Netherlands Election right now.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

הערה

MAR 14 2017: Wilders lost almost 10 Seats after yesterdays. TV Debate.

VVD: 27
GL: 20
D66: 20
CDA: 19
Wilders anti muslim and anti EU Party: 16 seats (had 37 in June 2016 opinion polls).

Wilders PVV now back to same number of seats like in last election and 5th strongest Dutch party only. If ever this would be confirmed by the elections tomorrow this would mean a huge miss for Wilders an also a huge miss for all U.S. Investors betting on rising populism in Europe.

הערה

Source: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

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MAR 14 2017: For German Readers. Follow up in Englisch as Soon as available.
zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-03/niederlande-wahl-umfrage-geert-wilders-verlust-pvv

הערה

MAR 14 2017: Dutch Election latest news now on Bloomberg.com:
bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-14/wilders-party-slumps-in-shock-dutch-poll-on-eve-of-election

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MAR 15 2017: First Dutch Election results by 9.00 PM. DAX-Future close is 10 pm (CET).

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MAR 15 2017: Market reactions: investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-off-ahead-of-fomc,-euro-firm-as-dutch-election-kicks-off-466191

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MAR 16 2017: Impressive round up with longterm charts by bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2017-01-31/dutch-general-election

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Comment: Comment: APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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