DOW JONES: Why bother when the long-term is so clear?

16 בינו׳ 2023

The Dow Jones Index on the 1W chart technically got above the neutral point only last week (RSI = 59.193, MACD = 453.990, ADX = 36.049), which on the long-term (year to year basis) are levels the market deem good enough to buy.

The price is establishing the 1W MA50 as its new long-term Support and if we draw the log Channel Up of Dow since the bottom of the 2008 real estate bubble, we see that every time it gained back the 1W MA50 after a 1W MA200 test, a new rally started. From a Higher High to Higher High stand-point, the date range is similar (minimum 1120 days, maximum 1365). According to that model, the next Higher High can be around July 2025 max.

On a 1W MACD basis, this new rally could be more similar with the one that started in 2016, as both are rising after a double bottom. The Fibonacci channel tool adds great value at finding the projection of the trend as on this Channel Up make effective pivot levels.


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