שורט

A long depression, the rise of facism, a new Kondratiev cycle

מעודכן

Most of the important points are in the chart.

** I am not saying I WANT this to happen, I am saying there is a pretty damn high probability it happens.

Here are a few more charts:

1929 btw, which I already posted

The socioeconomic stuff:

Germany economy in 1926 - 1938

If you are not under 25, you should hang out with people 15-20, they are let's say, just a little racist, they feel they are getting bullied and getting blamed for everything and hated and dicriminated against while being called privileged and are tired of it (again, not my opinion, just how people think). Might be my opinion in 10 years thought, I'm just here to make money, not my problem, I don't care about all this stupidity, you hooman simian beasts sort out your little issues between each other.
Everything is all primed for a big depression and a big rise in facism. Angela Merkel is 64 years old. She won't be around telling people what they should do or think forever.

I still expect the stock market to possibly go up by the start of next year, to 30-35k points, but for 2020-2030 all I see is a recession. I will keep a bear bias whenever I want to swing trade. Only short, never long. I will day trade long at major support levels.

Value investor Phil Town is making a video about Stock Market crashes live in 2 hours, I cannot link it here so I linked it on twitter (you can find it easilly on YT).

הערה

XD
Bagholders.
They are all the same.

הערה

Some shiller PE Ratio:
Black Tuesday (1929) = 30.
Black Monday (1987) = ~17.
1965 (followed by 15 years bear market) = 24.
Jan 1, 2018 ratio = 34.
Highest point ever reached: 44 win Dec 1999 when the market was full of worthless IPO scams and "this is the future" "muh infinite productivity" "The haters just don't understand the internet".
Highest point ever reached outside of that 1999 madness: JANUARY 1RST, 2018.
Lowest point past 150 years: 1920 @ 5 ;)

People bought in 2008 when the ratio hit 15.
They are learning. I am seeing the ratio make higher lows,
alot of people wait for the bear market to buy.
Still, I will wait for it to reach 10 to buy...
It certainly can. Anyway, missing out is worth it, nothing is better than having lots of cash available when the opportunity presents itself.

I suppose things would have gotten crazier if unsophisticated investors did not put their money into crypto and instead in the stock market.

הערה

For a century the Fed tightening their policies has caused bear markets 11/12 times, but I strongly believe they made it "softer".

But today they are pretty stuck, they want & need to to raise the interest rates but they do not want to cause a massive crash, so they are moving super slowly.

BUT add to this the bailout of wall street gambling idiots: they put how many billions in?
So now the Fed got a gigantic portfolio right? How do they sell?
M4*2 if they liquidate their assets, good night bull market.

Well all of this is interesting but at the end of the day all I know is I got a huge alarm telling me "DO NOT INVEST".
Everything is ripe for a recession.
Everything is poiting to a hardcore one.
Stocks are expensive, yes they can keep going up but that is not the point. The point here is they are VERY EXPENSIVE. One does not invest in expensive stocks, one leaves that to gamblers. Buy cheap sell high. Not Buy high sell higher. Buy high sell higher only if you are trading WITHOUT LEVERAGE EVER.

הערה

OK. 4.5 Trillion. And that was in May 2017. Damn.

"
The Fed has telegraphed a clear intention to begin unwinding a key policy tool deployed during the Great Recession as it seeks to reduce the size of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, now some five times larger than its pre-crisis total.

The Fed resorted to buying Treasury and mortgage bonds on a large scale starting during the depths of the financial meltdown and through the recovery, an effort to keep borrowing costs down when official interest rates were already at zero. Since then, the central bank has bought new bonds with the proceeds from ones that mature.

Now the Fed would like to cease this reinvestment policy, but is being especially cautious about sending a clear signal to the market, having been burned by a bad experience in 2013. At the time, a mere hint from then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank would start reducing the pace of bond buys sent fixed-income markets into a tizzy, tightening financial conditions sharply and unexpectedly. The event became known as the "taper tantrum."
"

הערה

US tax income =~3 Trillion
US debt > 5 trillion
Public debt > 15 trillion

Every one spends like madmen, everything is going up, people think it will last forever...
People think they are wealthy but it's all on borrowed money, that they won't be able to pay back to the bank which in turn won't be able to let people withdraw etc.

The fed cannot lower the interest rates at that point, they are already low, everything goes down.

The ways to make the debt disappear are as follow:

- Less spending (bad, vicious cycle)
- Take from the rich that every one starts resenting
- Hi my name is Adi (worse case scenario)
- Reduce debts (lenders get paid less)

These are all not great, there is one method that works great...
It is called "printing money out of thin air"

"Between December 2008 and October 2014, the Fed launched quantitative easing. That was a massive expansion of open market operations. The nation's central bank added $4 trillion to the money supply. It did this by buying Treasurys from its member banks. It paid them by adding the same amount to their credit on their books. It had the same impact on the economy as printing 40 billion $100 bills and mailing it to banks to lend."

But that was only a few years ago. They cannot keep doing that...
Simply, people are MUCH TOO STUPID. The FED can print money to save people, and warn them of euphoria, warn them again, protect them, but people need to be PUNCHED IN THE FACE AND THEIR NOSE TEMPLE AND JAW BROKEN.
Just look at how far up the stock market went even with so much debt.
Look at all the complete morons in crypto.
People only learn the hard way.
HILARIOUS, people are even angry at the FED for printing money XD
All they do with all this money printing is delay the innevitable, they released so much money and YET, US debt is at crazy peak records now. They did not deleverage correctly, they just let idiots pay their debt, NOT learn their lesson, and BORROW MORE.

Sorry for being pessimistic, but people are going to get punched in the face,
they will be resentful, they will vote for populists, facism will rise.
Plus you got the genocide of white people taking place (throught immigration and interracial breeding the aztecs did not all die, their ethnie disappeared as it was absorbed into the spanish genepool), so people in europe/usa have 1 more reason to go down that route.

But maybe, with luck, facism rises quickly, as fast as possible, before things get even worse. I am not sure the FED undertsand all of this. Money printing is a great solution, but it's not the miracle solution and not to be used by itself.
If they do not take it slow, and keep printing like mad scientists, well, US debt will grow, people will once again go crazy, and every thing wil lend up collapsing. Anyway that's what i think is highly possible. Why even take the chance I don't get it? To not see a few idiots cry because they lost everything or a few gamblers suicide? Who tf cares? Their own fault. 50 millions dead is better? Omegalul. Apes.

הערה

Wow I just check sears...
Founded 1893. They survived 2 world wars.
But then amazon came up.
People were saying "Sears will never die". And "we already dropped that much we cannot go lower".

Damn what happened last months? Crazy.

"Duh we already dropped 90% how much more can we drop?"
- People that are extremely bad at maths.
They moved to penny stocks, and they just keep dropping 90%

This is crazy.

I can't help but just think of the possibility in crypto.

What if the best way to make money was to short something that "dropped 90% and hit the bottom".
I heard some people were very successful doing that in penny stocks shorting dead companies.
How do they find buyers to be able to short? All the guys saying "We dropped 90% there is only 10% left how much lower can we go?"
Lmao really, how BAD can someone be at simple obvious basic maths?
They remind me of duck mothers. First you see them with 10 babies, they jump over a small river, 2 babies drowned, mother looks back, "ok no problem they're all there" and keeps going, she ends up with 4 children left in the end because she can't count. We are at that level there. If the mother duck has 3 or less children she will notice if one disappears and go look for him I believe, so it is not pure cruelty, just very very bad maths.

הערה

Ye ok I really do not think we are going to go up.
There is a 99.9% probability 27000 was the top.
Once we lose 23000 we are going straight for 19000.
I'll let you know if I think we bounce on 19k and if I open a swing trade with a target 20000 (+20-25%).

הערה

"Stock hedge funds are racking up even bigger losses than the benchmark U.S. index"
- Bloomberg markets

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

הערה

Paul Volcker, at 91, Sees ‘a Hell of a Mess in Every Direction’
The former Fed chairman, whose memoir will be published this month, had a feisty take on the state of politics and government during an interview.

You are damn right Mr Volcker. He gets it.
Experience talks.

Sad that once people really get to an advanced level of experience and start understanding how things work, they do not have many years left.

הערה

Btw USA has the upper hand against china in trade wars, the chinese dictator needs to chill out, the USA do not want to babysit the world as much anymore, BUT they will both go very much in the red. A shares probably more than dow spx nas.

I cannot believe these imbeciles - hedge funds.
They play it safe and underperform the market, then they see:

- Debt crazy high again
- Interest rates rose over 0 but still pretty low FED cannot lower them more
- Trade wars etc
- Massive drop in January
- Big bubble price is up like 300000% past 2-3 years like crypto's, yes the momentum was strong but at some point it stops and it stopped.
- The technicals are bearish
- Price to earnings at ath outside of 2000, slightly higher then 1929
- I probably forgot something

AND THIS IS WHEN THEY DECIDE TO TAKE BIG BETS TO THE UPSIDE WITH LEVERAGE.
HOW STUPID ARE THEY?

HAHAHAHA if these apes liquidate their leveraged assets because they just have to get out the crash will be so hardcore.

Gold and usdollar up up up <3

And as for crypto:
A) People move their money into crypto they see it as a safe haven (that makes absolutely no sense but people are not always logical)
B) -90% in 1 hour ;)
C) Bitmain MacAfee Bitmex Bitfinex manipulate the price and it does not move

About these hedge funds are they under alot of stress? When the market is in a bubble and makes over 50% gains in 1 year and they are up 2% I suppose their clients go crazy so they get pressured to get results and start doing this dumb stuff. Only explanation.

I used to think "ok we do not need to beat them, just join them"
But I am starting to think... Hey let's counter trade these noobs and let their huge orders fill ours with positive slippage :)

I think hedge funds are going to die and let venture capitalism maybe private equity funds and quants replace them.

I think quants are going to devour the whole thing but who knows. Ye probably quants just devour everything.
The government is going to have to ban Renaissance Technology when they end up with 90% of the stock market in their hands or something...
Maybe they get all the money and scientists finally get to make a difference.

הערה

Seriously, these dirty politicians all of them.
All they care about is having a growing economy while they are in place, people are too freaking stupid to undertand how it works anyway.
They will push debt as much as they can so the economy grows and it looks like they did good, they do not care if everything collapses 10 years later, people are braindead they will think it is the actual president's fault.

USA are so lucky the FED are separate from the government but still they get pressured.

So, when are we going back to monarchs that have to care what happens during their lifetime and then next? Or evolve into something different?

Or we could go from a debt system with its cycles to a system based on productivity. People would not be able to borrow money thought...

הערה

I posted this 2 days ago.
Today the USA had their worse mass shooting against jews in history.

Well... that escalated quickly...

Incredibly stupid people (or smart???) are getting angry and blaming Trump, calling for bans of every alt right site, block them from every social network, ruin their lives, fire them from their jobs...

Are they actually serious? They are that stupid? What about JEWS that want this? They really think they will end up safer by OPRESSING and being very UNFAIR to everyone that doesn't have far-left wing views or just you know, wants freedom of speech?
LOL.

Well, it is going to happen exactly as I predicted, alt right will be more and more opressed, people with light pigmentation especially white men are going to be more and more blamed for everything, banned from everywhere, thrown out of their job because "this guy kinda made a white power sign when he sneezed", victims of crime will get no justice etc, it will just keep getting worse and morons will keep asking for more oppression against whites.

But once again as has happened in europe forever... nothing will happen things will just keep heating up, nothing will happen things will just keep heating up, nothing will happen things will just keep heating up, then, overnight

EIN VOLK
EIN REICH

...

People are just not able to be reasonable.
Just an army of sheeple that do not understand cycles and that follows whatever general mood there is... from 1 extreme to another everytime.

When Hitler 2.0 rises I guess go long stock market.

הערה

* A trump assassination would accelerate things, or him murdering half of the FED because they won't stop hiking rates lol.

You cannot predict this stuff (well sometimes you can), but you sure can be prepared for it.

You know what words are the most often seem of money managers career tombstones?
"This can never happen" and "Price canNOT possibly get lower" :p

הערה

An absolute must read:
gem.cid.harvard.edu/files/gem2016/files/hall_blyth_berglof_gem17.pdf

I am going to make the left version of this idea this year, there is no rush.

The summary, if you have to take 1 thing home (if it was that obvious and every one knew that, we wouldn't have all these extremists doing so well in polls)

Debts too High, Wages too
Low, Inflation too Low

• Left Response: Blame
Capital/Globalization
• Right Response: Blame
Immigrants/Globalization

הערה

Well, it was either fascim or socialism.

Going to copy paste what I posted in my latest idea (published today):

" I watched part of the latest rally of the socialists of america.

- Comments are banned on youtube (go figure)
- "Aggressive scents" are banned
- Talking to the police is banned
- Several people (snowflakes) have stood up, interrupted the meating, and asked every one to stopped doing something they found offensive, including using gender pronouns, chatting and whispering (yes, chatting & whispering)
- Talking to the press is banned
- Using doors "wrongly" (lol what?) is banned

AND MY FAVORITE!!! THEY TOOK PRIDE IN HAVING THE BIGGEST RALLY SINCE THE 1940s. OH GREAT! WE ARE GOING BACK TO THE 1930s! HOW GREAT!"

But there is more, so 55% of americans 18-29 view socialism positively.
Really?
I saw somewhere that they even supported socialism and would vote for them but I won't believe this without strong sources.

And this with the stock market at the top unemployement at record lows.
What will it be when we go down?

Devolution. How are these "people" that stupid?
Remember, in 1946 every one was a strong opponent to the NAZI (National Socialists).
When WW3 or the US civil war is over, every one will be a strong opponent to the Democrat Socialists.

The USA has 6000 nuclear warheads (and russia 6500, rest of the world a couple hundred, even North Korea has nuclear weapons thanks to Bitcoin).

Who has an IQ over 110 and is down for building an utopia in greenland?
I'll have a big land with houses + bunker as well.
Going to have to think about how to generate electricity and food.

MrRenev

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